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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240237
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
0405 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.                       

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL MEXICO 
WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WITH SHARP 
RIDGING EXTENDING SE ACROSS FAR SE MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF 
THESE FEATURES WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS BY EARLY TOMORROW 
MORNING THROUGH THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. STRONG GAP WINDS 
PULSING TO MINIMAL GALE FORCE OVERNIGHT WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT 
LEAST SAT MORNING LIKELY HELPING TO DEVELOP LOW PRES ALONG THE 
TROUGH WITH.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS FROM 07N78W TO 13N89W TO 09N102W TO LOW 
PRES NEAR 10N111W 1011 MB TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N128W 1011 MB TO 
BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 
NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS W OF 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
OBSERVED WITHIN 150 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 115W AND 120W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OBSERVED WITHIN 60 NM N AND 120 NM 
S OF AXIS BETWEEN 125W AND 135W.

...DISCUSSION...

1020 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS IN THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 
30N130W WITH A BROAD RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TO THE SE TO NEAR 
20N115W. ASCAT SATELLITE DATA AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 
MAINLY MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS W OF 
110W. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ALSO ARE NOTED E OF 110W...EXCEPT 
IN THE DEVELOPING PLUME OF GAP WINDS EMERGING OUT OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC.

LONG PERIOD NW SWELL DOMINATES THE WATERS W OF 110W...MIXED WITH 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL S OF 10N...WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE 
HEIGHTS TO 9 FT. THIS SWELL WILL DECAY W OF 110W WITH THE AREA 
OF SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER PROPAGATING SE COVERING THE WATERS S OF 
10N BETWEEN 90W AND 105W BY 48 HOURS. 

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE NW CORNER TONIGHT...BREACHING 
30N140W BY 12 UTC FRI WITH FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS BEHIND IT 
ALONG WITH 8-13 FT SEAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES 
TO THE E-SE REACHING 30N127W TO 26N133W TO 23N140W BY 48 HOURS 
WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS DIMINISHING TO 20 KT OR LESS BY FRI 
EVENING...WHILE SEAS WILL STILL BE 8-12 FT BEHIND THE FRONT BY 
EARLY SAT.

OTHERWISE...A COUPLE OF WEAK LOW PRES AREAS ARE EMBEDDED IN THE 
WESTERN PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH...ONE NEAR 10N111W AND  
THE OTHER NEAR 10N128W. UPPER TROUGHING W OF THE AREA IS 
SUPPORTING AREAS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW PRES AREAS AND ALONG 
THE MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 125W AND 135W. NO SIGNIFICANT 
DEVELOPMENT OF THESE LOWS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
CHRISTENSEN



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Page last modified: Friday, 24-Oct-2014 02:38:13 UTC