000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue Jul 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave extends from 03N to 15N, with axis near 98W, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
from 05N to 11N between 95W and 102W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 109W, 
moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 10N to 17N between 106W and 114W.

A tropical wave extends from 05N to 17N with axis near 126W, 
moving slowly westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is from 06N to 13N between 120W and 135W. 

A tropical wave extends from 04N to 17N with axis near 138W,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is
from 08N to 14N between 134W and 145W. 
 
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N97W to 10N110W. The
ITCZ extends from 10N110W to 10N125W, then resumes west of a 
tropical wave from 10N128W to 10N137W, then resumes west of 
another tropical wave near 10N140W and beyond. Aside from the
convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate
isolated strong convection is offshore Colombia and Panama N of
04N E of 81W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N
to 11N between 82W and 93W.  

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh SE winds are occurring across the northern 
Gulf of California as troughing prevails over the Gulf. Slight to
moderate seas are along the Gulf with a peak of 4 ft. Moderate to
fresh N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with
seas to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail along with  
moderate seas.

For the forecast, pulsing moderate to fresh N gap winds will 
occur in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri as high pressure 
builds over central Mexico. Winds may increase there to fresh to 
strong Fri night into the weekend as the pressure gradient 
tightens further, resulting in building seas to rough there. 
Farther south, moderate E winds, generated by gap winds in the 
Gulf of Papagayo, will occur well offshore of southern Mexico 
through midweek, then returning this weekend. Fresh to strong S 
to SE winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California 
tonight into early Wed and continue through midweek as low 
pressure deepens over the Desert Southwest. Moderate seas will 
prevail elsewhere, except slight in the Gulf of California. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are occurring in the Gulf of 
Papagayo as low pressure prevails near northern Colombia. 
Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas extend through the 
waters well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala. South of the 
monsoon trough, moderate southerly winds prevail. Moderate seas 
in SW swell prevail over the Central and South American waters, 
except rough south of the Equator and offshore Ecuador.

For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds are 
expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend as high 
pressure builds over Mexico and the Gulf of America, building 
seas to rough at times. Moderate to fresh E winds will extend 
through the outer waters offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador 
through midweek, and then again this weekend. Moderate to fresh N
winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama midweek. A SW swell will 
continue to propagate through the South American waters through 
the middle of this week, promoting rough seas offshore of Ecuador
and Colombia. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1038 mb high pressure well northwest of the discussion waters 
near 45N144W extends a ridge across the waters north of the ITCZ
and monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh trades are in the belt 
from 10N to 20N west of 125W, and from 10N to 16N east of 118W. 
Gentle to moderate trades are elsewhere north of the ITCZ and 
monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are south of the 
ITCZ and monsoon trough west of 120W, and moderate east of 100W. 
Rough seas in advancing southerly swell prevail across the waters
south of 05N. Moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas will 
continue north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ this week as 
ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Moderate to fresh 
southerly winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough and 
ITCZ. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will propagate through the
southern waters promoting rough seas south of 08N, through mid- 
week, then decaying through the end of the week. A new N swell 
will arrive and lead to rough seas north of 25N by midweek, 
decaying by the end of the week.

$$
Ramos