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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 110953

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
655 UTC Sun Dec 11 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.


Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over southern and
eastern Mexico has begun to weaken. Latest satellite-derived wind
data indicate the pressure gradient over the Isthmus of
Tehuantepec is slackening. Highest sustained winds over the Gulf
are now 30 to 35 kt. Winds will continue to diminish below gale
force by this afternoon as high pressure over the western Gulf of
Mexico weakens and shifts eastward. Max seas will be around 13 ft
this morning, becoming 10-12 ft by this evening then subsiding to
below 8 ft Monday. North winds are still expected to pulse to
around 25 kt over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in response to
nocturnal drainage flow during the overnight hours each night
Monday through Friday.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N85W to 05N95W.
The ITCZ continues from 05N95W to 09N109W to 05N133W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is evident
from 06N to 08N between 80W and 83W and from 08N to 15N between
106W and 126W.



High pressure centered west of the area is maintaining moderate
to fresh NW winds over the forecast zones. Seas range between 4
and 6 ft in NW swell. Other from the Tehuantepec high wind event,
light to gentle winds will prevail S of 17N through Wednesday,
then winds will increase on Thursday and Friday in response to low
pressure passing to the south. Fresh to locally strong NW winds
north of 28N along the west coast of Baja California will continue
through tonight, then diminish Monday as the ridge weakens in
response to an area of low pressure approaching from the NW.
Between 17N and Mazatlan moderate to fresh northwest winds will
prevail through Tuesday night, then become light to moderate on
Wednesday and Thursday.


Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh to strong offshore winds east of 92W will
continue to pulse mainly during the overnight hours this weekend.
Max seas during this event will be 8-9 ft. An easterly wave over
the western Caribbean will cross Central America early Monday. GFS
model guidance indicates low pressure development along the wave
axis as it moves westward away from Costa Rica on Tuesday and
Wednesday. Model consensus and climatology suggest this system
will proceed as a trough or as modest low pressure. Associated
winds should remain 25 kt or less.

Fresh to strong winds north of the monsoon trough in the vicinity
of the Gulf of papagayo will subside to light to moderate NE to E
winds on Wednesday and Thursday. The monsoon trough is expected
to remain between 08N and 10N through Thursday. South of the
monsoon trough, light to moderate southwest to west winds are
expected to prevail from 05N to 09N through Thursday. Combined
seas will range between 3 and 5 ft in southwest swell. Moderate
to fresh southerly flow is expected south of 05N through Thursday.


High pressure centered near 28N129W ridges southeast to 15N105W.
Gentle to moderate north-northwest flow is expected northeast of
the ridge axis through Wednesday. Moderate to fresh trades will
predominate south of the ridge axis and north of the ITCZ. An area
of fresh to occasionally strong NE winds and combined seas of 8-9
ft is currently evident from 07N to 17N W of 125W. This area will
shift westward and diminish in size until it disappears on Monday
evening. Low pressure approaching the far northwestern waters is
weakening the ridge, and will help maintain a relatively light
wind regime in this area Tuesday through Friday. A cold front will
enter the far northwest waters Tue night, then weaken as it
proceeds eastward toward Baja California Norte Wednesday through
Thursday night. NW swell generated to the N of the front will
cause seas N of 26N and W of 127W to build to between 8 and 10
feet by Friday morning.