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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010945
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SAT AUG 01 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0945 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

AT 0900 UTC AUG 01...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS NEAR 
13.4N 137.4W OR ABOUT 1250 MI ESE OF HILO HAWAII. GUILLERMO WAS 
MOVING W-NW OR 285 DEG AT 14 KT AND IS FORECAST TO SLOW ITS 
FORWARD MOTION TONIGHT. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 
ESTIMATED AT 970 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED ARE 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 
110 KT. DRY AIR HAS ENTRAINED INTO THE W SEMICIRCLE AND 
GUILLERMO HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. 
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY OBSERVED WITHIN 90 NM OF 
CENTER SURROUNDED BY SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION 
WHICH IS NOTED ELSEWHERE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 
FROM 14N132W TO 13N140W. GUILLERMO WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE 
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENT TODAY... 
THEREAFTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER. GUILLERMO IS 
FORECAST TO CHANGE LITTLE TODAY THEN A BEGIN TO WEAKEN. REFER TO  
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER 
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.  

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TWO TROPICAL WAVE S HAVE MERGE INTO A SINGLE WAVE ANALYZED FROM  
06-16N ALONG 107W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NOTED WITHIN 120 NM OF WAVE AXIS. A SURFACE LOW IS 
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 10N LATE SUN AND 
CONTINUE W WHILE THE WAVE LOSES IDENTITY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST OF COLOMBIA  
07N78W TO 07N80W THEN TURNS NW TO 09N98W WHERE SCATTEROMETER 
WINDS INDICATE A TRANSITION TO AN ITCZ WHICH CONTINUES NW TO 
10N102W...THEN TURN SW TO 07N132W WHERE IT LOSES IDENTITY. 
EXCEPT AS PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED NEAR GUILLERMO AND THE TROPICAL  
WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED TO 
THE N OF 02N E OF 81W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITHIN 120 
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 06N90W TO 11N100W AND A LINE FROM 
06N110W TO 11N115W. 

.SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OBSERVED  
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM 16-27N.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS MEANDERING NEAR 28N127W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING SE TO NEAR 18N112W. ALTHOUGH THE GFS GUIDANCE HAS 
BACKED OFF A LITTLE ON THE NW FLOW INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITHIN 
150 NM OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA 
LATER TODAY...THE EUROPEAN GUIDANCE STILLS SUGGESTS 20 KT 
CONDITIONS. ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 4-7 FT EARLY TODAY ARE EXPECTED 
TO GRADUALLY BUILD TO 5-8 FT BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL WITH COMBINED SEAS OF 7-8 FT WILL 
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE N ACROSS THE TROPICS S OF 12N BETWEEN 95-
130W TODAY AND SUN...THEN BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. 

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...EXPECT MAXIMUM DRAINAGE OF ONLY 15-20 KT AT 
SUNRISE TODAY AND THEN AGAIN ON SUN NIGHT RESULTING IN AN AREA 
OF 7-8 FT SEAS PROPAGATING W-SW AND MIXING WITH THE LONG PERIOD 
CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THE DRAINAGE 
WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 KT ON MON NIGHT. 

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...EXPECT 15-20 KT DRAINAGE WITH SEAS OF 5-8  
FT ON TUE NIGHT INTO WED.  

$$
NELSON


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Page last modified: Saturday, 01-Aug-2015 09:45:33 UTC