Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXPZ20 KNHC 232140

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2145 UTC Tue Aug 23 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.


Post-tropical remnant low Kay near 23.5N 121.1W at 23/2100 UTC or
617 nm west of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is
1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40
kt. No deep convection is present with the remnant low. The
remnant low will continue to the northwest this evening, and then
more west-northwest before dissipating tomorrow. A small area of
fresh to strong winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft can be found within
150 nm in the north semicircle, however, these conditions will
diminish and subside tomorrow as the low dissipates. See the
final NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC for more details.

A tropical wave is along 104W/105W from 08N to 19N through a 1012
mb low pressure area near 14N104.5W, moving west-northwest around
10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 18N between
100W and 109W. An area of seas to 8 ft can be found within 150 nm
in the north semicircle. Associated winds are currently 20 kt or
less, however, they are forecast to increase to fresh to strong in
the next few days which will build seas to 8 to 10 ft by Thursday
afternoon. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation
during the next 48 hours.


A tropical wave is along 96W north of 10N moving west at 15 to 20
kt. Limited convection is present with this wave in the northeast
Pacific, with any deep convection to the north in the southwest
Gulf of Mexico. This tropical wave is forecast to merge with
another tropical wave and area of low pressure to the west near
14N104.5W in the next few days.

A tropical wave is along 121W from 07N to 15N moving west at
around 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is disorganized and is
described in the monsoon trough section below. The tropical wave
is forecast to merge with an area of low pressure currently to the
east near 11.5N118W in the next few days. Fresh monsoonal flow
is supporting a large area of seas of 8 to 9 ft within 480 nm in
the southeast semicircle of the low.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 08N90W to low
pressure near 11.5N118W to 10N132W. The intertropical convergence
zone axis extends from 10N132W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 08N to 10N between 120W and 124W, and also from
09N to 11N between 135W and 138W.

Scattered moderate convection is also in the southern Gulf of
California from 23N to 26N between 108W and 111W. This convection
developed over land earlier today before propagating offshore to
the southwest-west.



Ridging extends from 1022 mb high pressure near 31.5N126.5W
through 28N120W to 21N110W. This ridging will change little
through the upcoming weekend with mainly light to moderate
northerly flow prevailing outside of the Gulf of California.

In the Gulf of California, expect mainly light to moderate
southerly flow, except occasionally to fresh in the northern Gulf
where the pressure gradient will be slightly tighter.

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds will continue to
pulse to fresh to near gale force during the next few days due to
a locally tight pressure gradient combined with nocturnal drainage
flow, with the strongest winds expected during the late night into
the early morning hours. Seas will build to up to 8 to 10 ft
during the strongest winds. The gradient will weaken slightly this
weekend allowing for northerly winds to pulse to only fresh levels.


In the Gulf of Papagayo, the latest model guidance indicates
easterly offshore winds pulsing to fresh levels during the
overnight and early morning hours through early Wednesday, which
will build seas to 7 ft.

Otherwise, expect light to moderate winds elsewhere. Combined
seas will be 4 to 6 ft through the upcoming weekend.


Other than the remnant low of Kay, and any potentially developing
tropical cyclones, expect mainly moderate to locally fresh trades
and combined seas of 4 to 7 ft.


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Page last modified: Tuesday, 23-Aug-2016 21:40:25 UTC