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Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300910
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                      
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
1005 UTC SUN AUG 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM  
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.               

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

HURRICANE JIMENA...CATEGORY FOUR...CENTERED NEAR 13.7N 128.4W AT 
0900 UTC MOVING WNW 290 DEG AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT WITH 
GUSTS TO 145 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL ORGANIZED 
CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN SURROUNDING A CIRCULAR EYE ABOUT 15 NM 
IN DIAMETER. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 
NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ELSEWHERE IN 
CONVECTIVE BANDS WITHIN 300 NM NE AND 210 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF 
THE CENTER. THE SURROUNDING AREA OF HIGH SEAS AND STRONG WINDS 
IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND OUTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. WAVE 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES LARGE SWELL GENERATED BY JIMENA WILL 
EXPAND MORE RAPIDLY THAN THE AREA OF HIGH WINDS. BY 48 HOURS... 
EXPECT THE AREA OF 20-33 KT WINDS TO BE COMPLETELY WITHIN THE 
AREA OF SEAS 12 FT OR GREATER. JIMENA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A 
STRONG POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND 
HIGH SEAS EVEN AS IT WEAKENS THROUGH TUE. REFER TO THE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/ TPZ23 
KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...            

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS W FROM 10N84W TO 08N95W TO 10N102W TO 
LOW PRES NEAR 10N108W 1009 MB TO 12N117W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE TROUGH AXIS BETWEEN 97W-
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OUTSIDE THE 
CONVERGENCE ZONE FROM 05N-09N E OF 85W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH NEAR 10N108W IS 
SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF CONVEXCTIVE ORGANIZATION. SAT IMAGERY 
INDICATES A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WITH CONVECTIVE CELLS 
ALIGNING SOMEWHAT INTO BANDS WELL AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION 
CENTER. NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TRACKING 
SLOWLY WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WITH SW FLOW INTO IT 
INCREASING TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6-8 FT.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS NORTHERN WATERS N 
OF 20N W OF 115W. THE PRES GRADIENT E OF THE RIDGE WILL TIGHTEN 
MON...INCREASING NW FLOW TO 25 KT NEAR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN 
CALIFORNIA AND 15-20 KT WITHIN ABOUT 180 NM W OF THE NORTHERN 
PART OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WITH SEAS BRIEFLY BUILDING 
TO 8-9 FT IN NW SWELL MON.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...N-NE 20-25 KT WINDS THROUGH GULF WITH SEAS 
OF 6-8 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING THEN DIMINISH TO 15-20 KT 
THIS AFTERNOON WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5-6 FT. 

$$
MUNDELL


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Page last modified: Sunday, 30-Aug-2015 09:10:57 UTC