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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170307
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 UTC Tue Jan 17 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A trough extends from 04N78W to low pressure near 01.5N82.5W to 
04N91W. The ITCZ extends from 04N91W to 07.5N101W to 05N125W to 
beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection was noted within 
90 nm south of the ITCZ between 110W and 113W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A ridge extends from 1024 mb high pressure area centered near 
30N134W to the south of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail over the forecast waters off the coast of
Baja California and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to 
gentle winds prevail over the waters off southwest Mexico and the
Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range off the coast 
of Baja California, 2 ft or less over the Gulf of California, and
4-6 ft elsewhere. 

Looking ahead, global models have been fairly consistent showing
a weak cold front moving into the waters off Baja California 
Norte by Thursday then become diffuse ahead of a stronger cold 
front moving across Baja California and the Gulf of California 
Friday and Saturday. The second front will be accompanied by 
fresh to strong winds and seas of 12 to 13 ft off Baja 
California.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse the next couple of nights over
the Gulf of Papagayo, when winds will peak near 25 kt during the
late night and early morning hours. 

Elsewhere light to gentle northeast to east winds will persist 
north of about 07N, and light to gentle south to southeast winds 
south of 07N. Seas are around the 3-4 ft range...except slightly 
higher seas north of 07N with little change expected through mid
week.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure of 1024 mb centered north of the area near 30N134W
extends a ridge southeast to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The
pressure gradient between lower pressure in the vicinity of the 
ITCZ is supporting an area of fresh to strong trade winds from 
11N to 13N west of 132W, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range north 
of 09N to 22N and west of 120W. The swell will subside below 8 
ft from north to south through mid week north of 20N, while seas 
related to the trade wind flow will persist from 07N to 20N. 

Looking ahead, areal coverage of the fresh to strong trade winds
and associated seas will decrease after mid week as the high 
pressure north of the area weakens ahead of an advancing cold 
front. Northwest swell of 8 to 12 ft will accompany the front as 
it moves eastward across the waters north of 25N Wednesday and 
Thursday, followed by a second front moving south of 30N to the 
east of 130W by Thursday and Friday.

$$
AL

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 17-Jan-2017 03:08:11 UTC