776 
AXPZ20 KNHC 110926
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Wed Jun 11 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Cosme is centered near 16.2N 114.5W at 11/0900
UTC, moving northeast at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central
pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt. No convection is evident near Cosme as it moves
into drier air, and it will continue to weaken to a remnant low
later this morning. After transitioning to a remnant low later 
this morning, Cosme is expected to dissipate by late Thu or Fri
near Clarion Island. Rough to very rough seas near the center of
Cosme will gradually subside through tonight.

Meanwhile the remnant low of Barbara is dissipating west of Las 
Tres Marias.
 
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website - 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest 
Cosme NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at 
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1012 mb low pressure
near 09N96W to 09N100W, and again from 12N118W to 06N140W. 
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 
06N to 10N between 85W and 90W, and from 11N to 16N between 90W 
and 105W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Storm Cosme.

Weak ridging extends from a 1028 mb high centered at 37N150W to 
just north of the Revillagigedo Islands. Earlier scatterometer
satellite data confirmed fresh to strong NW winds along the coast
of Michoacan in southern Mexico. Locally rough seas likely
accompany these winds. Elsewhere away from Tropical Storm Cosme,
winds over the Pacific are gentle to moderate with seas 6-7 ft.
Gentle to moderate breezes and slight seas persist across the
Gulf of California. 

For the forecast, Tropical Storm Cosme is near 16.2N 114.5W at 2 AM PDT, and is
moving northeast at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb.
Cosme will weaken to a remnant low near 16.7N 114.2W this
afternoon, move to 17.5N 113.9W Thu morning, 18.4N 113.7W Thu
afternoon, and dissipate Fri morning. Associated strong winds and rough
seas near Clarion Island will subside through tonight. Fresh to 
strong NW winds and locally rough seas off Michoacan will 
diminish today. Farther south, a broad area of low pressure 
located several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm 
activity. Looking ahead, environmental conditions appear 
conducive for gradual development of this system, and there is a 
high chance a tropical depression will form late this week or 
over the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward 
just offshore the southwestern coast of Mexico.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region are
likely diminishing currently. Elsewhere, winds are gentle to 
moderate over forecast waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in S swell. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted along 
the monsoon trough off Costa Rica.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas 
will persist across the region through tonight. From Thu into Fri
night, an enhanced monsoon trough should cause increasing SW 
winds as well as showers and thunderstorms over the Central 
American forecast waters. Looking ahead, quiescent conditions are
likely for the weekend.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on
Tropical Tropical Storm Cosme.

Weak ridging dominates the waters north of 15N west of 120W. 
This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N
to 15N west of 130W, with 5 to 7 ft seas. Gentle moderate winds
and 4 to 6 ft seas persist elsewhere west of 120W. East of 120W
moderate SW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted south of the
monsoon trough, associated with broad 1012 mb low pressure along
the monsoon trough near 09N96W. Farther south, southerly cross-
equatorial swell to 7 ft is reaching toward the Equator between
90W and 120W. 

In the forecast, little change in winds and seas west of 120W 
are expected over the next several days. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for gradual development of the broad low, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or over the
weekend while moving generally west-northwestward just offshore 
the southwestern coast of Mexico. Winds south of the monsoon 
trough east of 105W should reach fresh to strong by late Thu. 
Likewise, waters east of 120W may reach up to 10 ft in S to SW 
swell.

$$
Christensen