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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 200312
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0311 UTC Mon Feb 20 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...  

The ITCZ extends from 06N90W to 05N104W. ITCZ resumes from 
08N113W to beyond 02N140W. No significant convection is noted at
this time. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered near 25N124W. Gentle to moderate winds 
prevail over the offshore waters along the coast of Baja 
California. The high will begin to weaken in response to an 
approaching cold front NW of the discussion area. Large NW 
swells continue arriving in the coastal and offshore waters of 
the entire Baja California peninsula. Seas as high as 16 ft 
continue to lurk in the waters west of Baja California Norte. 
These swell are maintaining dangerous conditions across these 
waters. Please see statements from your local meteorological 
agency on this high impact swell event. Winds and seas will 
continue decreasing through the next 24-48 hours. 

High pressure will build SE over eastern Mexico behind a surface
trough moving east across the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday,
helping produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. 
This event will be brief as winds peak near gale force late 
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish 
on Wednesday evening as high pressure over Mexico weakens.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh 
during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then
diminish by midweek.

Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse to moderate to fresh 
during the overnight hours through Monday night. 

Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern waters near 
26N124W. The main threat across the area continues to be the 
large NW swell that was generated to the N of the cold front that
dissipated over the waters near southern Baja. Sea heights 
remain in excess of 12 ft over much of the area north of 16N
between 110W and 122W. The swell will continue to propagate SE 
while subsiding during the next few days. Seas greater than 8 ft 
will spread as far south as 04N and east as 100W by Tuesday 
afternoon. Another cold front has entered the far NW waters this
evening. Fresh to strong southwest winds prevail ahead of the 
front mainly N of 28N through the next 24 hours. Strong to near 
gale winds will persist west of the front through Monday 
afternoon before tapering off. This front will reintroduce a 
fresh set of large NW swell into the forecast waters. Seas will 
peak near 18 ft over the far NW waters on Monday morning. Seas 
will slowly subside as the swell propagate southeastward. Seas 8 
ft or greater will cover much of the forecast waters north of 06N
and west of 115W by midday Tuesday. Areal coverage of 8 ft seas 
will decrease Tuesday night through Friday and leave only a 
residual area of 8 ft seas over the far NW waters N of 15N and W 
of 135W.

$$

ERA