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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291452
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1452 UTC Wed Mar 29 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1445 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 07N82W to 06N92W to 02N102W.
The intertropical convergence zone axis extends from 02N102W to
02N116W to 02N130W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm
either side of the trough between 82W and 96W. Scattered moderate
and isolated strong convection is from 04N to 06N between 100W
and 102W, from 04N to 06N between 123W and 130W, and also from
02N to 04N between 137W and 139W. 

...DISCUSSION...   

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure north of the area extends a ridge southeast to 
near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between 
the ridge and lower pressure inland over Mexico is supporting 
fresh to strong N-NW winds west of Baja California Norte. Long 
period NW swell continues to propagate across the offshore waters
west of Baja California building seas to 10-13 ft. The high 
pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 to 48 
hours, then shift westward Thursday night and Friday. Additional 
pulses of NW swell will build combined seas to 11-12 ft across 
offshore zones PMZ009 and PMZ011.

A cold front will drop south and extend to near or over the far 
northern Gulf of California tomorrow evening and night, 
tightening the local pressure gradient. Southwest winds just 
ahead of this front in the northern Gulf will increase to fresh 
to strong at that time, with fresh to strong northerly winds
behind it by Friday afternoon, then diminishing later Friday as 
the pressure gradient weakens.

Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the rest of
the week. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Gap wind events are not expected to be very significant the next
few several across the Central American coastal and offshore
waters. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas are expected to 
prevail over the forecast waters the next several days.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong 1030 mb high pressure located north of area near 33N135W 
dominates the northern half of the forecast area. The pressure 
gradient between the high and lower pressure near the equator is 
supporting fresh to strong trades from roughly 12N to 17N west 
of 135W. Seas in this area are 8-11 ft, in a mix of long period 
NW swell and NE wind waves. The aerial extent of the trades will 
diminish through Thursday as the high moves west and weakens 
slightly. Marine conditions over the forecast region will change 
little during the next few days under the influence of this 
broad ridge.

Looking ahead, high pressure will strengthen late in the 
upcoming weekend with a belt of fresh to strong northeast winds 
developing around it across the northwest and north central 
waters Sunday.

$$
LEWITSKY



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 29-Mar-2017 14:52:53 UTC