000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090834 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 09 2024

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, 
Colombia, and Within 750 nm of Ecuador section

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough axis extends from low pressure that is over 
northern Colombia, west-southwestward to 07N78W to 09N100W to 
12N110W and to 11N114W, where latest scatterometer data indicates
the ITCZ begins and continues to low pressure near 09N118W 1008 
mb and to 04N30W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen within 120 NM N of the
trough between 100W-104W. Scattered moderate convection is 
within 120 nm N of the ITCZ between 117W-119W, and within 30 nm 
of the ITCZ between 119W-122W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Strong high pressure centered N of the area extends a broad 
ridge southward across the regional Pacific waters and weakly 
southeast over the offshore waters of Baja California to the 
Revillagigedo Islands. Low pressure extends northward along the 
entire coast of California. The pressure gradient between the 
high pressure and this area of low pressure is generally allowing
for moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja 
California N of Cabo San Lucas and for moderate to fresh
northwest to north winds S of Cabo San Lucas. Seas across most 
of the Baja waters are 6 to 8 ft, except 7 to 10 ft N of Punta 
Eugenia. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are moderate,
southwest to west in direction except for gentle west winds over 
the central part of the Gulf. Seas over the Gulf are 2 to 3 ft, 
except 4 to 5 ft in southwest swell at the entrance of the Gulf 
and 3 to 4 ft over the northern part. Elsewhere over the south 
and southwestern Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to 
moderate, west to northwest in direction, and become onshore 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, while seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW
swell.

For the forecast, the strong high pressure that is well N of the
local area will shift northeastward through Thu, then drift 
westward and weaken through the weekend. This will maintain 
moderate northwest winds offshore Baja California N of Cabo San 
Lazaro and generally moderate to fresh northwest winds S of Cabo 
San Lazaro through the weekend. NW swell will continue to move 
into the Baja offshore waters through Fri, with seas in excess of
8 ft persisting across the waters N through W of Punta Eugenia 
through early Thu evening, before subsiding. Gentle to locally 
moderate west to northwest winds along with moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere across the S and southwestern Mexican offshore
waters through Sun night. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue over most 
of the near and offshore waters N of about 03N and E of 95W. This 
activity reaches eastward into southwestern Caribbean. This 
active weather is occurring about the monsoonal circulation 
that is becoming seasonally established across the region. Some
of this activity may be accompanied by gusty winds at times, 
moderate to rough seas and frequent lighting once it develops 
into stronger clusters, perhaps during late overnight hours and 
into the morning. Winds remain light and variable and seas 
moderate, 4 to 5 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and 
the Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S to 
SW with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh south to southwest 
winds are expected S of the monsoon trough, roughly along 09N, 
through Fri, which will feed moisture into the scattered to 
numerous showers and thunderstorms currently across the area 
waters. This active weather will shift slowly westward of 90W by 
Fri afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail 
elsewhere along with moderate seas in a south swell. Otherwise, 
new southerly swell entering the region today will maintain seas 
of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun, and build 
briefly to near 8 ft Fri night. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is centered well N of the
discussion area. Broad ridging extends from it southward across 
the subtropical waters between 110W and 150W. The gradient
related to this ridge is maintaining moderate to fresh northwest
to north winds are north of 25N between 120W and 125W, while 
gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are present 
elsewhere north of 20N between 115W and 125W. These winds become 
northeast to east of 125W. Seas across this area N of 20N are 6 
to 8 ft in northwest swell, except 8 to 10 ft north of 28N and E 
of about 135W. S of 20N between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 
120W, moderate to locally fresh northeast to northeast to east 
winds along with seas of and 6 to 8 ft seas in northeast swell 
prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate east to southeast 
winds are present along with seas of 6 to 8 ft due to mixed 
southeast and southwest swell. Elsewhere, light to gentle 
variable winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of 
the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the
ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area
gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small pockets of seas
to 8 ft are expected across the trade winds zone through Fri, 
then subside slightly through Sun. Northwest swell across the 
Baja California Norte waters producing seas of 7 to 10 ft will 
change little through Thu afternoon, then subside below 8 ft late
by Fri night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
Aguirre