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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 180355
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu Jan 18 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure continues
to build southward across eastern Mexico and the western Gulf of 
Mexico behind yet another cold front, and is supporting a tight 
pressure gradient across southern Mexico. Gale force winds of 40 
to 45 kt prevail across and downwind of Tehuantepec and are 
expected to through the early morning hours of Thu. Winds are 
then expected to gradually diminish below gale force by Friday 
afternoon. The resultant plume of northerly swell will continue 
to propagate well southward of the Gulf of Tehuantepec waters, 
mixing with long period NW swell to produce seas in excess of 8 
ft to near 650 nm due S of Tehuantepec and over 800 nm SW of the 
there. Maximum seas tonight will remain around 19 ft near the 
strongest winds, and gradually subside by the end of the week as 
the winds diminish.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from 07N77W TO 09N86W TO 05N93W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N93W TO 07N130W to beyond 09.5N140W. 
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 
03N to 10N between 77W and 91W. Scattered moderate isolated 
strong convection is within 75 nm S and 120 nm N of the axis 
between 95W and 110W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to 
strong convection is occurring within 90 nm S and 360 nm N of 
ITCZ between 110W and 137W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see the special features section for information about 
the ongoing gale warning in the offshore waters of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec.

In the Gulf of California, light to moderate NW flow is expected 
across across the entire gulf waters through Friday afternoon.
Winds will become southerly Friday evening ahead of an 
approaching cold front, increasing to fresh to strong in the 
northern gulf Friday night, then shifting to NW to N behind the 
front. The front will gradually become ill defined as it moves 
southward across the gulf during the day Saturday with mainly 
moderate to fresh northerly flow in its wake for the end of the 
weekend, except increasing to fresh to strong in the central and 
southern Gulf Sunday afternoon and night as the pressure 
gradient tightens across that area.

Elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico, large NW swell 
continues to propagate SE across the waters, with seas of 8-11 
ft prevailing, except 5-8 ft between 98W and 105W. The large 
swell is generating high and powerful surf along the coasts and 
outer reefs of the Baja California peninsula and mainland Mexico 
which will continue this evening, with coastal flooding possible.
Another pulse of NW swell will reach the offshore waters off 
Baja California Norte Thursday night. Seas will peak near 13-15 
ft by Friday, while seas of 12 ft or greater will spread across 
the offshore waters off the entire length of the Baja Peninsula 
through the upcoming weekend.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

Fresh NE gap winds winds will pulse to strong each night and
early morning across the Gulf of Papagayo through Saturday
morning, diminishing thereafter. Winds will also pulse to fresh
to strong offshore of other Central America gulfs and gap wind
areas tonight into early Thursday. Elsewhere, mainly light to 
gentle offshore winds will prevail N of 09N, with light to 
gentle southerly flow S of 09N. NW swell originating from the 
gale wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with longer 
period NW swell will arrive across the area waters Thursday and 
Friday, building seas offshore to 5-7 ft.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Large, long period NW swell continues to propagate SE across the 
forecast waters, with seas of 8 to 12 ft across the waters W of 
95W-100W. A weakening cold front has moved into the far NW 
portion of the area from 30N137W TO 28N140W, and will continue 
SE through early Thursday, and be reinforced by building high 
pressure Thursday evening. Winds W of the reinforced front will 
increase to fresh to strong Thursday evening, with fresh to 
strong trades gradually spreading across the waters N of 10N W 
of 110W during the upcoming weekend as the front dissipates 
across the N central waters.

$$
Stripling

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Page last modified: Thursday, 18-Jan-2018 03:55:19 UTC