000
AXPZ20 KNHC 012049
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu May 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 11N76W to 09.5N87W to 08.5N102W.
The ITCZ continues from 08.5N102W to 09.5N120W to beyond 
06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
03N to 09.5N east of 89W, and from 05N to 12N between 120W and 
140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N 
between 89W and 111W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate N-NW winds
continuing across the Baja California waters, becoming more
westerly and continuing parallel along the coast from Cabo
Corrientes to the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Locally fresh winds were
noted along the coast of Cabo San Lucas and Cabo Corrientes. Seas  
are 4 to 6 ft across these waters in a mix of S to SW and NW
swell. Light to gentle winds were noted across the southern Gulf
of California, and gentle to moderate winds southerly winds
across northern portions. Seas in the Gulf are 1 to 3 ft, except
4 to 5 ft in S swell at the entrance to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will slowly 
weaken and shift southeastward through Fri night before collapsing.
Moderate winds across the Baja waters this afternoon will 
increase gradually to fresh tonight through Sat morning, ahead of
an approaching cold front. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds 
will pulse across the northern Gulf of California tonight. The 
cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat evening and 
reach the central Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant 
increase in winds and seas across the Baja offshore waters, and 
strong to near gale-force westerly gap winds across the Gulf of 
California through Mon morning. S to SW winds are expected across
the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the upcoming weekend. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Midday satellite scatterometer data showed moderate NE to E gap 
winds prevail across the Papagayo region. Moderate S to SW winds
were noted south of the monsoon trough, along about 08N. Light 
to gentle winds were noted elsewhere. Seas across the area are 
in the 4-7 ft range in S to SW swell. Scattered showers and 
thunderstorms prevail across the waters from 03N to 09.5N east of
89W and into the coasts of NW Colombia, Panama, and Costa Rica.

For the forecast, moderate winds will continue tonight across 
the Papagayo region before winds diminish during the upcoming 
weekend. Gentle northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will 
become light and variable into the weekend. Gentle to moderate S 
to SW winds will continue across the waters between the Galapagos
Islands, Ecuador and Colombia into Sat then will become SW to W 
Sun through Mon. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 
and W of 106W, centered on a 1024 mb high near 31N136W. The 
pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the 
vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE trade 
winds N of the ITCZ to 22N and W of 110W. Seas over these waters
are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle anticyclonic winds dominate the 
remaining waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with seas in the 4 
to 6 ft range. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle 
winds and seas of 5-7 ft prevail. 

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will
continue to weaken and shift southeastward through Fri night
before collapsing, ahead of an approaching frontal system. The 
weakening ridge will maintain the current marine conditions 
N of the ITCZ through Fri. A cold front will enter the NW waters
Fri evening. The front will reach from Southern California to 
30N122W to 26N140W Sat evening, and from central Baja California 
to 23N140W by Sun evening. Strong high pressure building behind 
the front will promote fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and 
building seas of 8 to 12 ft behind the front through the weekend,
with strongest winds and highest seas occurring E of 130W.

$$
Stripling