000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010130
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Thu May 1 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0130 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N119W. The ITCZ 
continues from 08N119W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to 
isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N east of 
103W, and from 03N to 10N between 124W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the discussion
waters, including the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 5-6 ft
range over the open waters off Mexico. Over the Gulf of
California, seas are in the 1-3 ft range, except reaching 5 ft at
the entrance to the Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area will slowly 
weaken and shift southeastward through the remainder of the 
week, leading to a gradual decrease in winds and seas across the 
Baja waters. S to SW winds are expected across the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh W to SW 
gap winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of California 
tonight and Thu night. A cold front will move into the Baja 
Norte waters Sat night and reach the central Baja waters Sun, 
accompanied by a significant increase in winds and seas across 
the Baja offshore waters, and strong westerly gap winds across 
the Gulf of California through Mon morning.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Moderate to fresh easterly gap winds prevail across the Papagayo
region. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. 
Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 
4-7 ft range in fading S to SW swell. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night 
across the Papagayo region through early Fri, before winds 
diminish during the upcoming weekend. Moderate northerly winds 
across the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly through Thu, 
then become light and variable into the weekend. Gentle to 
moderate S to SW winds will persist across the waters between the
Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia into Sat. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA....

A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N 
and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and 
lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate
to fresh NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 115W. Seas
over these waters are in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate 
anticyclonic winds dominate the remaining waters N of the ITCZ
and W of 110W, with seas in the 6 to 7 ft range. S of the 
ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft 
prevail. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will begin to
slowly weaken and shift southeastward through Fri, ahead of an 
approaching frontal system. The weakening ridge will result in a 
decreasing trend in winds and seas N of the ITCZ through end of 
the week. A cold front will enter the NW waters Fri evening. The
front will reach from Southern California to 30N122W to 26N140W 
Sat evening, and from central Baja California to 23N140W by Sun 
evening. Strong high pressure building behind the front will 
promote fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and building seas 
of 8 to 12 ft behind the front through the weekend.

$$
AL