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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 271531

1605 UTC FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


The monsoon trough extends from 08N77W to 11N107W to 06N129W.
ITCZ axis extends from 06N129W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is from 06N to 10N east of 89W, and
from 05N to 14N between 91W and 99W.


High pressure north of the area centered near 38N138W extends a
ridge axis southeastward to 18N112W. This subtropical ridge in
conjunction with the convergence zone south of 11N influences
most of the area W of 110W. Latest scatterometer data indicates
fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ to 22N generally W of 117W.

Global models are suggesting a broad, fairly weak area of low
pressure across the central waters in the vicinity of 10N120W.
By Sat afternoon further development is indicated, which may
result in a low centered near 11N122W. A tight pressure gradient
within the NW quadrant of the low will allow NE winds to reach
fresh to strong conditions with seas building to 9 ft by early
Sun morning. 

Elsewhere, near gale force N-NW winds along the California coast
are expected to produce an area of N swell that will extend
south of 32N tonight and affect the north-central waters N of
28N between 122W and 129W through Sat night. Otherwise, benign
marine conditions are expected to prevail across the remainder
of the forecast area through Sun.