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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 270933

1005 UTC FRI MAY 27 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

The Monsoon Trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N91W to 11N105W
to 07N120W. The ITCZ axis extends from 07N120W to 06N128W to
08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is
from 05N to 10N between 79W and 87W...from 05N to 08N between
90W and 95W...and from 04N to 11N between 100W and 104W.
Isolated moderate convection is from 06N to 12N between 112W and
118W and from 04N to 09N between 127W and 132W.

High pressure at 1033 mb centered near 39N137W...north of the
area...extends a ridge axis southeastward to 17N110W. This high
pressure area influences most of the area N of 13N W of 110W.
Latest scatterometer data indicates fresh N to NE winds north of
the ITCZ to 22N generally W of 117W.

Global models are suggesting an area of broad and weak low
pressure across the central waters in the vicinity of 10N119W.
As stated above...the latest scatterometer data indicates weak
cyclonic flow embedded along the monsoon trough in this area. By
Saturday afternoon further development will result in an
estimated 1009 mb low near 11N122W with a slight strengthening
of the pressure gradient within the NW quadrant of the low. NE
winds will reach fresh to strong breeze conditions as seas
respond building to 9 ft by late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning. 

Elsewhere...Near gale to gale force N-NW winds along the
California coast are expected to produce an area of N swell that
will extend south of 32N Friday night and affect the north-
central waters N of 28N between 122W and 129W through Saturday
night. Otherwise...rather benign marine conditions are expected
to prevail across the remainder of the forecast area through
Saturday night.