AXPZ20 KNHC 280225
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 27 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 11N114W. ITCZ from
08N121W to 07N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection from 08N to 12N between 117W-123W.
A tropical wave from 08N85W to 13N89W moving westward at 15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring over El Salvador.
A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the forecast
area. Scatterometer data shows mainly light to gentle winds in
the basin, with a few areas of moderate winds on either side of
the convergence zone. High pressure over the northern Gulf of
Mexico will support enhanced Gulf of Tehuantepec Gap winds to 25
kt at night the next few days. Models are hinting at enhanced
Papagayo winds occurring later this week.
An area of cross-equatorial sw swell will propagate northward
over forecast waters mainly west of 95W and east of 125W through
Wed. 8-10 ft swell will reach as far north as 12N Wed morning.
Tropical cyclone development is not expected through Friday, but
models are hinting at a low forming near 12N103W this weekend.