| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXPZ20 KNHC 242136
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
2205 UTC WED DEC 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC. 

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                        
GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE WARNING...COLD DENSE AIR ASSOCIATED 
WITH HIGH PRES BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE GULF 
OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY BEGINNING TO FUNNEL THROUGH SOUTHERN 
MEXICO INTO THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE FORCE GAP WINDS ARE 
EXPECTED BY THIS EVENING WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 13-15 FT EARLY 
THU. HIGH PRES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EAST AND 
WEAKEN ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF THU...ALLOWING WINDS IN THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC TO QUICKLY DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE THU LATE 
INTO THU NIGHT...AND BELOW 20 KT BY FRI. NE SWELL IN EXCESS OF 8 
FT WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST AWAY FROM THE GULF REGION AFTER THE 
ONSET OF THE GALE EVENT...AND REACH FROM 07N TO 14N BETWEEN 98W 
AND 105W FRI MORNING. 

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...           
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N78W TO 07N81W TO 09N87W TO 
07N102W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 07N102W TO 06N114W TO 08N132W TO 
07N140W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N TO 08N 
BETWEEN 79W AND 90W...AND FROM 04N TO 06N BETWEEN 113W AND 119W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                 

A CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N106W ANCHORS A TROUGH 
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS ACROSS NW MEXICO TO 08N106W. THE 
SUBTROPICAL JET IS DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF ITS USUAL LATITUDE TO 
04N-08N BETWEEN 105W AND 120W THEN ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE TROUGH 
BETWEEN 100W AND 105W. THE LOW WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH AND LIFT 
N-NE THROUGH THU. AN INCREASING INFLUENCE ON REGIONAL WEATHER 
WILL BE A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND CUTOFF UPPER LEVEL LOW N 
OF HAWAII CENTERED NEAR 26N158W. THE PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO 
ONE WITH A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL 
RIDGE N OF AREA AND DEEPENING LOW PRES W OF THE AREA. THIS WILL 
RESULT IN INCREASING SE WINDS N OF 27N W OF 135W BY LATE THU... 
WITH GENERALLY MODERATE TO OCCASIONAL FRESH TRADE WINDS FARTHER 
SOUTH.

A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRES DOMINATES MOST OF THE NORTHERN WATERS 
W OF 115W AND SUPPORTING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS N OF THE 
ITCZ W OF 115W. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL REACH NORTHERN BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS E OF 125W THU LATE THROUGH 
SAT. SHORT PERIOD NW TO N SWELL GENERATED BY PERSISTENT STRONG 
WINDS BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA WILL 
BRING 12-14 FT SEAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 115W AND 125W LATE 
THU...DECAYING TO BELOW 10 FT BY LATE FRI INTO EARLY SAT. SEAS 8 
TO 10 FT IN MIXED NW AND N SWELL WILL PERSIST N OF 23N BETWEEN 
115W AND 130W THROUGH LATE FRI.  

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...STRONG HIGH PRES N OF THE AREA IN THE GREAT 
BASIN IS SUPPORTING STRONG NW WINDS OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
WITH SEAS TO 6-7 FT. THE HIGH WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT E THROUGH 
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE BELOW 20 KT BY THE OVERNIGHT 
PERIOD. EXPECT FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA BY SAT NIGHT BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE WEAK COLD 
FRONT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES STRONG NE WINDS TO  
30 KT WILL SURGE THROUGH THE GULF REGION BEGINNING THU NIGHT 
LATE INTO FRI...AND PULSING TO A RANGE OF 20 TO 25 KT EARLY SAT.

$$
HUFFMAN


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Wednesday, 24-Dec-2014 21:36:41 UTC