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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 302205

2205 UTC MON MAY 30 2016

Tropical weather discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.


A tropical axis is along 92W/93W from 07N to 12N moving westward
at 13 kt. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection have flared up within 240 nm east of the wave axis.
from 07N to 13N between 87W and 91W. Low pressure may form along
the wave as it moves to near 95W/96W late on Tuesday.
r during the next 48 hours as the wave becomes more diffuse. 

A tropical wave is just inland southern Panama and northwest
Colombia near 78W south of 13N moving westward at 10-15 kt. The
wave is helping to produce widely scattered thunderstorms over
much of Panama and southern Costa Rica. Isolated thunderstorms
are noted over portions of northwest Colombia. The wave is
forecast to out across the eastern Pacific waters tonight.


The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N86W to 10N97W to low
pressure near 09N105W 1012 mb to 12N114W to low pressure near
13N119W 1011 mb to 10N124W, then transitions to ITCZ axis from
10N124W to 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 07N to 11N between 108W and 113W.


The subtropical ridge prevails over northern waters N of 17N and
west of 115W. Cold front NW of the area from 36N144W to 27N148W
is being blocked by high pressure north of the area, and is
expected to become stationary west of 140W during the next 36-48
hours. A persistent low pressure area near 14N120W is nearly
stationary, and scatterometer data showed 20 kt winds near the
circulation center. The low is expected to weaken and transition
to a trough during the next 24-48 hours. Convection associated
with the low has been spotty and unorganized during the past 24
hours. Scatterometer data from last night indicates gentle trade
winds over most of the area north of the convergence zone, and
mainly light southerly winds to the south. Model guidance shows
multiple weak transitory cyclonic circulations embedded in the
monsoon trough the next few days, with little possible tropical
development expected until late this week - based on the ECMWF.