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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 191056
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AS OF 19/0900 UTC...TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD IS CENTERED NEAR 
39.8N 38.5W OR ABOUT 462 NM W-NW OF FAYAL ISLAND IN THE WESTERN 
AZORES MOVING E AT 6 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 
990 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND EDOUARD IS 
FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. THE 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH EDOUARD HAS REDUCED SIGNIFICANTLY AND 
LIES SE OF THE CENTER FROM 34N-39N BETWEEN 33W-37W. SEE LATEST 
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 17N18W TO A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 9N19W. THE WAVE IS 
MOVING AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KT. METEOSAT RGB AIRMASS IMAGERY SHOW 
THICK HIGH CLOUDS N-NW OF THE LOW WHERE THE STRONGEST CONVECTION 
IS OBSERVED AS SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED TSTMS. 
CONVECTION IN THE S-SW WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS LIMITED DUE TO SOME 
DRY AIR AND DUST INTRUSION NOTED IN THE GOES-R SEVIRI DUST 
PRODUCT AND THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N46W TO 8N48W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. SCATTERED 
LOW TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACCOMPANY THE WAVE EXCEPT NW OF THE 
AXIS WHERE THE GOES-R DUST PRODUCT AND THE METEOSAT SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR AND DUST. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 210 NM E OF THE AXIS AND 300 NM W OF THE AXIS S OF 11N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 21N66W TO 11N67W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. MOSTLY 
MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN WITH PATCHES OF HIGH MOISTURE N OF 17N BETWEEN 65W-67W 
WHERE SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OBSERVED. STRONG 
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS HINDERING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N16W TO 
A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 12N19W TO 8N31W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS FROM  
8N31W TO 9N45W...THEN RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE AT 9N49W TO 
6N58W. FOR INFORMATION ABOUT CONVECTION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE 
SECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...  

AN OVERALL UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS ACROSS THE GULF BEING 
INFLUENCED BY LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE...A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS AND DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE. A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS 
THE EASTERN U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W HAS ITS BASE REACHING 
THE EASTERN GULF...THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE SW N ATLC. THIS 
TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS NORTHERN 
FLORIDA WESTWARD TO SW LOUISIANA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF E OF 91W N OF 
23N. SURFACE TROUGHINESS WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN WHICH WILL FUEL 
RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.

CARIBBEAN SEA...         

EXCEPT FOR SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA AND A PORTION OF THE NW 
CARIBBEAN...MODERATE MIDDLE TO LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES IN 
THE REGION ALONG WITH LIGHT TRADE WINDS. MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
IN THE WESTERN BASIN GENERATED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH W OF 80W 
AND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED OVER HISPANIOLA 
ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 80W. A 
TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN BASIN WHICH IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 17N BETWEEN 
64W-68W. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ON THE SE BASIN S OF 15N E OF 65W BEING 
SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH. 
ELSEWHERE...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR AND DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPRESS CONVECTION. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA FRIDAY AND ACROSS CUBA ON 
SATURDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                             

FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING AS DEEP 
LAYER DRY AIR IS ON THE REGION. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE 
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS PUERTO RICO WILL START AFFECTING THE 
WEATHER LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING AS IT MOVES 
ACROSS THE ISLAND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN 
U.S. TO THE WEST ATLC NEAR 60W WITH ITS BASE EXTENDING ACROSS 
FLORIDA AND THE SW N ATLC. SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH...A 
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS GENERATING A DIFFLUENT 
ENVIRONMENT IN THE SW N ATLC THAT ENHANCES ISOLATED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS N OF 25N W OF 69W. THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED 
BY A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N73W TO 26N80W TO THE SE GULF. 
ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE SURFACE 
RIDGE WHICH ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE SOUTHWARD SUPPORT SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS S OF 24N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SEE THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Friday, 19-Sep-2014 10:56:18 UTC