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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          
A STRENGTHENED PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING FROM 
11N-13N BETWEEN 74W-78W. THESE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO 
DIMINISH BELOW GALE FORCE WARNING CRITERIA BY 30/1800 UTC. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N78W AND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE 
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN IT AND THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE 
EAST. NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO MATERIALIZE 
WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW BY 30/1200 UTC. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ 
FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N31W TO 18N33W MOVING W AT 15-20 
KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 30W-41W AND 
LIES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW-LEVEL MONSOONAL GYRE 
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS THAT HAS SPUN UP A 1010 
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N24W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N46W TO 16N46W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY SUBTLE 700 MB TROUGHING 
BETWEEN 44W-50W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING 
WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N63W TO 18N63W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 60W-67W. 
NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS 
TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 10N85W TO 19N85W MOVING W AT 15 KT. 
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH BROAD 700 MB TROUGHING BETWEEN 82W-90W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 07N-11N BETWEEN 81W-86W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 83W-87W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                      
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
20N16W TO 16N19W TO A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 12N24W TO 09N40W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N40W TO 
12N54W TO 11N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
07N-14N BETWEEN 22W-31W IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE 1010 MB LOW 
SOUTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                       
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS OVER THE GULF THIS EVENING ON 
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN TEXAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
INDICATES MOST ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS NOTED N OF 22N PRIMARILY 
AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MOISTURE ATTRIBUTED TO CONVECTION OCCURRING 
ACROSS THE NE GULF WATERS AND SE LOUISIANA. AN AREA OF LOWER 
PRESSURE IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE NE GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA 
FOCUSED ON A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS 
NEAR 30N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 26N-
31N BETWEEN 83W-89W. OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 
1017 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 26N91W IS PROVIDING THE BASIN WITH 
GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC BREEZE CONDITIONS. THE HIGH IS 
FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY W-NW THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. 
THEREAFTER...WEAK FRONTAL TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ALONG 
THE COASTAL PLAIN AND NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH LATE 
SATURDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                             
MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN REMAINS FAIRLY TRANQUIL THIS EVENING 
WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATING RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS 
ALOFT FOCUSED ON VERY BROAD TROUGHING EXTENDING OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NORTH OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 
21N69W. THE TROUGHING EXTENDS WESTWARD TO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL 
LOW WITH SMALLER AREAL INFLUENCE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
NEAR 17N86W. SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES 
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
OCCURRING IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING ALONG 86W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 
83W-87W. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W HOWEVER IS ONLY 
GENERATING POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES 
THIS EVENING. FINALLY...THE PRIMARY IMPACT FOR THE BASIN REMAINS 
NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING WITHIN CLOSE PROXIMITY 
TO THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ELSEWHERE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 16N BETWEEN 70W-80W.

...HISPANIOLA...                               
CURRENTLY...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR CONDITIONS PREVAIL 
ACROSS THE ISLAND FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GIVEN DRY AND STABLE 
AIR ALOFT ALONG WITH RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES NOTED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY TO THE EAST...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED 
ACROSS THE ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY 
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 39N58W TO 
32N70W TO 29N76W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A 1011 MB LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 34N75W WITH THE ASSOCIATED STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SW 
INTO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 30N78W THEN SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE 
FLORIDA COAST NEAR 28N81W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
ARE OCCURRING N OF 24N BETWEEN 73W-81W...AND ISOLATED SHOWERS N 
OF 29N BETWEEN 65W-73W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS 
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
28N57W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N80W. FARTHER EAST...THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE 
RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED SW OF THE AZORES NEAR 
34N33W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN

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Page last modified: Thursday, 30-Jul-2015 05:48:47 UTC