Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180539
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
205 AM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                        
GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN THIS MORNING 
WITHIN 90 NM NW OF A LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND BE NEAR 
29N88W. GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT MORNING AS 
THE LOW MOVES E OF THE GULF. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 7N11W AND CONTINUES TO 4N14W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES NEAR 2N20W THEN S OF THE EQUATOR NEAR 29W. SMALL 
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE 
FROM 3N TO S OF THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 24W-37W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                
A REMNANT STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AT 18/0300 UTC 
ENTERING THE GULF NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUING ALONG 28N87W TO 
26N92W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE S GULF EXTENDING FROM 
23N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS 
DIGGING S OVER THE W GULF FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY 
ACROSS E TEXAS AMPLIFYING AN UPPER RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM W 
CUBA OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS 
WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 
23N91W TO INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST NEAR FORT WALTON BEACH 
FLORIDA. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE W GULF W OF A LINE FROM 
THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO. STATIONARY FRONT WILL 
CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI. A 
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE 
N/CENTRAL GULF LATE TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL BE NEAR 29N88W WITH A 
COLD FRONT TRAILING TO 24N91W FRI MORNING WITH THE LOW NEAR 
30N85W AND THE FRONT EXTENDING TO 25N89W FRI EVENING. BOTH 
FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE  E OF THE GULF BY SAT MORNING. GALE FORCE 
WINDS ARE EXPECTED NW THE LOW WITH GUSTS TO GALE FORCE OVER THE 
NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE 
GULF SAT NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM NW VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC. THE 
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED 
SHOWERS N OF 17N BETWEEN 70W-80W AND S OF 12N TO INLAND OVER 
VENEZUELA E OF 69W TO OVER TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ARE N OF A LINE FROM GRENADA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC NEAR 
18N70W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR 
WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH 
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WITH 
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADES ELSEWHERE THROUGH SAT. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY SUN AS A WEAK LOW MOVES 
INTO THE SW ATLC.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HAITI AND THE SW PORTION OF 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NW 
VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA INTO THE W ATLC WILL FLATTEN OUT 
THROUGH FRI WHEN NEAR ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL 
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND GIVING THE ISLAND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE 
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUN.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY 
FRONT THAT ENTERS THE REGION AT 18/0300 UTC NEAR 32N72W AND 
EXTENDS ALONG 27N77W ACROSS THE N BAHAMAS AND OVER THE FLORIDA 
NEAR FORT LAUDERDALE TO FORT MYERS CONTINUING INTO THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE W AND THE 
CENTRAL ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH ABOUT 650 NM NE OF 
BERMUDA. AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE ATLC TO OVER THE 
CENTRAL ATLC ARE SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS THAT 
EXTEND THROUGH 32N16W ALONG 25N25W TO 20N36W WITH A SECOND FROM 
33N24W TO 22N40W. W ATLC FRONT WILL DRIFT N AS A WARM FRONT 
THROUGH FRI. SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NE 
GULF OF MEXICO FRI AND WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE 
REGION SAT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW