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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 051039
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SUN JUL 05 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

...GALE IN THE CARIBBEAN...                                      
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 11N-13N 
BETWEEN 73W-77W THROUGH MON MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED 
BY A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE 
OVER THE ATLC AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER SOUTH AMERICA. SEE 
LATEST NWS HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES... 

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 40W/41W 
FROM 5N-15N MOVING W NEAR 25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED 
WITHIN AN SURGE OF MODERATE MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS ALONG 51W/52W FROM 
5N-13N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN LOW 
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS ALONG 80W/81W 
FROM 10N-18N MOVING W 20-25 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE TOTAL 
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A 
SURGE OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP 
CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC 
NEAR 19N16W ALONG 11N19W TO 8N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 6N35W TO E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N40W THEN 
RESUMES W OF THE WAVE NEAR 7N43W TO E OF THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE 
NEAR 8N51W. AN AREA OF SPEED CONVERGENCE IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 
9N46W 8N54W TO 11N63W INCLUDING TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER LOW IS INLAND IS CENTERED OVER TENNESSEE WITH AN UPPER 
TROUGH EXTENDING S TO THE N GULF COAST GENERATING SCATTERED 
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE 
N GULF COAST BETWEEN PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO VERMILION BAY 
LOUISIANA. AN UPPER TROUGH DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS AGAIN THIS 
MORNING EXTENDING FROM NEAR PENSACOLA FLORIDA THROUGH AN UPPER 
LOW NEAR 23N89W OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INCLUDING THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. THE UPPER TROUGH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST 
OF MEXICO S OF 22N AND W OF 95W. NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND 
THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF 
AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST REMAINS OVER THE W GULF LIMITING 
SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS 
FROM THE ATLC ACROSS FLORIDA TO A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR ORLANDO 
FLORIDA TO TEXAS. THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID 
WEEK. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                 
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W 
OF 84W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN DUST 
REMAINS OVER THE CARIBBEAN LIMITING SHOWERS AND DEEP CONVECTION. 
HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE ALLOWING ISOLATED LOW LEVEL 
SHOWERS TO FORM OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 64W LEAVING THE 
REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. 
A PERSISTENT STRONG ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN STRONG 
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WITH MINIMAL GALE FORCE WINDS 
ALONG THE NW COAST OF COLOMBIA THROUGH MON MORNING. TROPICAL 
WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W ACROSS THE BASIN 
THROUGH MON. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL ENTER THE E CARIBBEAN 
MON WITH A THIRD TROPICAL WAVE ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN MON 
NIGHT.  

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
SKIES REMAIN CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THIS WILL 
PREVAIL THROUGH MON. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD 
RETURN TUE AND WED. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL CUBA TO BEYOND 32N76W 
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N 
BETWEEN 77W-80W. LARGE THE UPPER LOW IS TO THE E CENTERED NEAR 
27N70W GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 64W-74W. THE ATLC BASIN IS 
DOMINATED BY AN E/W SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH N 
OF THE AREA NEAR 34N43W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 
32N55W TO ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
NOAA/NESDIS AEROSOL PRODUCT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE 
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE NEST PLUMB OF AEROSOLS OR SAHARAN 
DUST COVERS A SLIGHTLY SMALLER AREA OF THE TROPICS N OF THE ITCZ 
TO 21N/22N TO THE CARIBBEAN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST 
THROUGH MID WEEK. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW


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Page last modified: Sunday, 05-Jul-2015 10:40:00 UTC