000
AXNT20 KNHC 281924 CCA
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jul 28 2025

Corrected Atlantic Ocean synopsis

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1800 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An central tropical Atlantic is along 37W, south of 17N, moving 
westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed 
from 08N to 12N and between 35W and 40W.

An active and large tropical wave is along 63W in the eastern 
Caribbean, south of 25N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is near the north end of the wave axis. 

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 72W, south of 20W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
present near the north end of the wave axis and also over
Hispaniola. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and extends west-southwestward through a 1012
mb surface low near 10N37, and then southwestward to 06N41W. The
ITCZ then extends from 06N41W to 04N48W to the coast of Guyana
near 06.5N58W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and
within 200 nm of the monsoon trough axis between 25W and 40W, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms also along the
monsoon trough E of 25W. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are also seen along and near the ITCZ generally S of
10N and W of 55W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Convergent surface winds between a 1023 mb high over the NW Gulf
and winds north of a tropical wave S of the area are leading to
widely scattered moderate convection in the Gulf generally south
of a line running from Tampa, FL to Tampico, Mexico. Otherwise
high pressure continues to maintain gentle to moderate E winds
across much of the Gulf, along with seas of 2-5 ft. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds will 
develop off the Yucatan Peninsula tonight as a trough develops 
inland and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, 
high pressure will dominate the basin through Fri, supporting 
mostly gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection are ongoing
generally S of 16N and W of 80W, and also along the coasts of
Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. A broad subtropical 
ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports moderate to 
fresh E to NE winds across much of the central Caribbean between 
66W and 80W, as well as in the lee of Cuba and through the 
Windward Passage. Winds are locally strong S of 15N between 68W 
and 74W. Winds elsewhere across the basin are gentle to moderate
or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft between 68W and 82W, with 2-5 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high 
pressure and lower pressure over Colombia will support fresh winds
and rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri. Strong 
winds will pulse off Colombia overnight through Fri as the high 
pressure builds north of the area. Generally moderate winds and 
seas will prevail elsewhere. 


...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected

A surface trough extends from the central Bahamas to near 31N69W,
with scattered showers seen near the north end of the axis. More
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen along and N
of 29N due to the convergent surface winds between a 1023 mb high
near 28N49W and a 1024 mb high near 35N53W. All other convection
in the basin is associated with tropical waves, the monsoon 
trough, or the ITCZ.

Away from areas of convection, the tropical Atlantic is dominated
by a ridge stemming from a 1033 mb high near 45N23W, and also
anchored by a 1023 mb high near 28N49W. Recent scatterometer data
indicates moderate to fresh NE winds N of 20N and E of 20W, with 
the strongest winds occurring in between the Canary Islands. Seas
in this area are 4-6 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of
4-6 ft are also seen S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. The
remainder of the tropical Atlantic is seeing moderate to locally
fresh trades prevail S of 20N, with gentle to moderate or weaker
winds N of 20N and W of 20W. Seas of 3-6 ft are also prevalent
across much of the tropical Atlantic. 

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the 
weather pattern across the forecast region through Fri, supporting 
mostly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over the 
region. 

$$
Adams