Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230004
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 22 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                          

AT 2100 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 
49.6W OR ABOUT 800 NM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES. THE ESTIMATED 
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 
30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY FORECASTS 
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WED...WITH 
WEAKENING TO A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW OR TROUGH EXPECTED SOON 
AFTERWARDS DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR. LATEST SATELLITE 
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM. 
ONLY SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NW QUADRANT. ISOLATED WEAK 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE DEPRESSION IN THE S 
SEMICIRCLE. SEE THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

A GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN THE SW CARIBBEAN ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 73W-77W WITH SEAS 10-15 FT. TIGHT 
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE GALE CONDITIONS 
DURING TONIGHT AND INTO WED. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH 
TO LESS THAN GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST 
ATLANTIC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER FAR WESTERN AFRICA MOVING W AT 15-20 KT IS 
FORECAST TO MOVE OFF THE COAST TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC HAS AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
21N42W TO 14N40W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
EARLIER NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE HAS DECREASED OVER 
THE PAST FEW HOURS. DUST IMAGERY SHOWS MORE EVIDENCE OF DRY 
SAHARAN AIR   IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE WAVE HINDERING DEEP 
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING.

A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 21N83W TO 10N84W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W NEAR 18 KT AS 
ESTIMATED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED 
OVER THE WATER WITH THIS WAVE WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND ISOLATED TSTMS NOTED ALONG THE AXIS N OF 16N...AND 180 W OF 
THE WAVE AS WELL ALSO N OF 16N. S OF 16N...OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE. 

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 21N94W S 
ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO AND TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC AT 9N96W 
MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NO 
SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. SEE LATEST TWDEP 
FOR DETAILS REGARDING DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS WAVE IN THE 
EASTERN PACIFIC.

 TROPICAL WAVE MAY SOON BE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 
5N33W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EAST OF T.D. TWO 
EXTENDS FROM 11N35W TO 13N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES W OF T.D. TWO 
FROM 11N50W TO THE S AMERICAN COAST NEAR 9N61W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH 
BETWEEN 30W-31W...AND ALSO WITHIN N OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 22W-
24W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
A WELL DEFINED UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 30N89W WITH A 
TROUGH SW TO 26N92W...AND SHEAR AXIS SW TO INLAND MEXICO AT 
TAMPICO. AN ASSOCIATED 1016 MB SURFACE LOW IS AT 30N89W. UPPER 
DIVERGENCE E OF THE LOW/TROUGH IN COMBINATION WITH VERY MOIST 
AND UNSTABLE AIR IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO 
EXIST FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE 
GULF SE OF A LINE FROM 30N83W TO 25N87W TO THE NE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND 
STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IN CLUSTERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. 
LIGHT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE NOTED IN THE NORTH-CENTRAL 
GULF...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE NOTED 
ELSEWHERE. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE GULF. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                              
VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED ACROSS THE 
BASIN. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING 
WESTWARD IS CONFINED TO THE FAR SE AND SW PORTIONS OF THE SEA. 
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY DRY AIR ALOFT IS KEEPING CONDITIONS GENERALLY 
FAIR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS 
MOVING NORTHWARD TO THE N OF 14N BETWEEN 72W-75W E OF AN UPPER 
LOW MOVING WESTWARD SSW OF JAMAICA AT 17N79W. 15-25 KT TRADE 
WINDS PREVAIL OVER REMAINDER OF THE BASIN OUTSIDE THE AREA OF 
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN AS DESCRIBED 
ABOVE UNDER SPECIAL FEATURES. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
MOST SECTIONS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SSW OF JAMAICA MENTIONED ABOVE IS EXPECTED 
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD TO THE VICINITY OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS 
THROUGH WED. ENOUGH MOISTURE TO THE E OF THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW 
FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO OCCUR OVER 
MOST OF HISPANIOLA...BUT PRIMARILY HAITI AND THE WESTERN PART OF 
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THOUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N38W WITH A RIDGE WESTWARD TO NE 
FLORIDA IS THE MAIN FEATURE ACROSS THE BASIN. DEEP ATMOSPHERIC 
MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA. THIS 
MOISTURE IS ALLOWING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS TO 
PERSIST THERE WHILE MOVING NORTHWARD UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL 
SOUTHERLY FLOW. ELSEWHERE...THE COMBINATION OF A LARGE UPPER LOW 
NEAR 27N65W AND A LARGE UPPER ANTICYCLONE NEAR IS MAINTAINING 
MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS UNDER RELATIVELY DRY ALOFT WITH THE 
EXCEPTION OF THE IMMEDIATE AREA W OF T.D TWO WHERE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NOTED FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 53W-60W. 
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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AGUIRRE