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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250600
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUL 25 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N18W TO 10N19W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. METEOSAT 
SAL TRACKING PRODUCT INDICATE THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE DRY 
SAHARAN AIRMASS WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION AT THE TIME.

TROPICAL WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
12N49W TO 4N50W MOVING W AT 15 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. DEEP 
LAYER MOISTURE IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED  
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 45W-57W. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL-EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 19N66W TO 12N69W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT DURING THE 
PAST 24 HOURS. MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NOTED IN THE 
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS ENHANCING 
SCATTERED SHOWERS ON COASTAL WATERS OF SW PUERTO RICO. 
ELSEWHERE...DRY AIR AND STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR 
HINDER CONVECTION.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N15W 
TO 9N27W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
9N27W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N40W TO 7N49W. IT THEN RESUMES W 
OF A TROPICAL WAVE FROM 7N51W TO 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION 
MENTIONED ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 20W-32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN BEING 
ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER...MIDDLE-LEVEL AND SURFACE 
RIDGING ARE SUPPORTING STABILITY AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BASIN-
WIDE. REMNANT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS BEING ENHANCED BY A 
REGION OF DIFFLUENCE IN THE UPPER LEVELS ARE S OF 25N BETWEEN 
80W-86W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE 
S OF 20N E OF 93W ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING 
FROM 21N89W TO 17N94W. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS OF 5-10 
KT ARE ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER IS 
FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

A REGION OF UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN 
BASIN WHICH ALONG MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 14N BETWEEN 75W-85W. A SIMILAR 
ENVIRONMENT ALOFT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED 
TSTMS FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 58W-62W. THIS CLUSTER OF SHOWERS WILL 
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. 
OTHERWISE...A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN-CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN WATERS. SEE ABOVE  TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR 
DETAILS. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC BASIN IS SUPPORTING 
A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 
SUPPORT TRADES OF 20-25 KT S OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W-80W. THE 
TROPICAL WAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA 
BY SAT MORNING WHILE A NEW WAVE ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND EARLY THIS 
MORNING. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST W OF PUERTO 
RICO WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND FRI TO EARLY SATURDAY 
SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE TSTMS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING ENHANCED BY MODERATE LOW-LEVEL 
MOISTURE AND A MID-LEVEL TROUGH N OF 26N...THE REMAINDER BASIN 
IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE 
ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 29N52W. THESE TWO FACTORS 
SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE BASIN. OTHERWISE...SEE 
ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE 
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC. HOWEVER...A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NE AREA OF DISCUSSION BY 
FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN SINK INTO THE EASTERN ATLC SUN AND MON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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NR