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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201050
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...                                           
N-NE GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE SW N ATLANTIC WATERS N OF 29N 
BETWEEN 20 AND 60 NM OF SHORE ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. 
GALE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLEASE SEE 
THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/ FZNT02 
KNHC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 14N17W TO 6N22W. THE 
ITCZ FROM 6N22W TO 1N30W TO THE EQUATOR AT 48W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF AXIS FROM 25W-33W.

...DISCUSSION...                                                

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF. STRONG  
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS IS ACROSS 
THE MEXICO E OF 90W. A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS ALONG THE 
LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS NEAR 29N94W. HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM 
DISSIPATED CONVECTION OVER MEXICO IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF W OF 
90W. WHILE IN THE EASTERN GULF LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE N OF 25N E 
OF 88W. SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY. 
BY TUE MORNING...A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP 
OVER THE NW GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED 
TO ENTER THIS REGION OF THE BASIN TUE AFTERNOON.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
NEARLY WESTERLY FLOW AND DRY AIR DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN AT THE 
UPPER LEVELS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLC 
EXTENDS INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN THUS INCREASING THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SUPPORT TRADE WINDS TO 20-25 KT ACROSS THE 
S CENTRAL...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE COLD FRONT 
ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS DISSIPATED.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                
CURRENTLY FAIR WEATHER IS ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
AT THE LOWER LEVELS AND ALOFT. EXCEPT FOR THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON 
SHOWERS...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 32N78W WITH 
TROUGH TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS 
FROM A 1011 MB LOW PRES NEAR 31N78W TO 32N77W THEN A COLD FRONT 
TO THE FAR NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO WESTERN CUBA. A LINE OF TSTMS E 
OF THE FRONT FROM 30N TO 24N BETWEEN 73W AND 76W. BOTH LOW LEVEL 
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SUPPORT THIS 
CONVECTION. GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM 
IS N OF 29N BETWEEN 20-60 NM OF SHORE. THE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE 
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION. THE LOW WILL 
CONTINUE TO SHIFT NE AND THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO 
DRIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE SW N ATLC THROUGH TUE MORNING. 
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE 
RIDGE. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BEING 
SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
DGS