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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 270536
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...GALE WARNING IN W ATLC...

A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 67W AND 79W W OF A 
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 23N79W. THIS 
GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT 
MOVES E WHERE IT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY 
CURRENTLY LOCATED E OF THE PREVIOUS FRONT. SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE 
DETAILS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLANTIC NEAR 07N11W TO 02N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND 
CONTINUES ALONG 01N34W INTO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 00N49W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM THE EQUATOR TO 03N BETWEEN 16W-39W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
TO OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO AND W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A FAST 
MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE FAR W ATLANTIC THROUGH 
CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN THEN INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE 
GULF FROM 22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS 
OBSERVED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE NW...A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH 
IS CENTERED NEAR 27N96W. SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE 
BASIN...BRINGING MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC TO THE AREA. DESPITE 
THIS...THE GULF REMAINS CONVECTION FREE AS THE COOL AND DRY AIR 
BEHIND THE FRONT PREVAILS. SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE 
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS 
THE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD 
FROM THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES E THROUGH THE 
CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 16N87W TO 21N76W. ISOLATED CONVECTION 
IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 50 NM S OF THE BOUNDARY. THE COLD FRONT 
EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC ACROSS CUBA AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 
22N85W TO 21N93W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED WITH 
THIS BOUNDARY. A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM SOUTH 
AMERICA ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND 
DRY STABLE AIR. GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE E 
AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 77W WITH ISOLATED TRADE WIND 
INDUCED SHOWERS. TO THE W OF 77W...A MODERATE NORTHERLY FLOW 
PREVAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH 
TO DISSIPATE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN WHILE WEAKENING. 

...HISPANIOLA... 

ISOLATED TRADE WIND INDUCED SHOWERS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND. 
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH 
APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS W CUBA. THIS 
FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ENHANCING 
CONVECTION. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A SHARP UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES 
TO OVER THE W ATLANTIC AND THE E GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTING A 
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF INTO 
THE W ATLANTIC FROM 23N80W TO 31N71W. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD 
FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N76W TO 28N69W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A 
STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES TO 31N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 24N BETWEEN 59W-70W. GALE FORCE WINDS 
ARE DEPICTED IN SCATTEROMETER DATA BETWEEN THESE FRONTS AND A 
GALE WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE 
REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS 
FROM 24N46W TO 28N46W. A 1041 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 
41N22W AND EXTENDS SW ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE E AND CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE FRONTS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO MERGE AND 
THE NEW BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WHILE WEAKENING.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 27-Jan-2015 05:36:59 UTC