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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 300548
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                    

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 7N12W
ALONG 3N19W TO 3N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG
4N37W TO OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 2N50W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 36W-
53W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N TO THE
EQUATOR BETWEEN 14W-24W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF GIVING THE
AREA NEAR NW FLOW ALOFT. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS ADVECTING UPPER
MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF. HOWEVER RADAR INDICATES NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWER ACTIVITY IS PRESENT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE REPORTING
FOG OVER THE NW GULF N OF 15N W OF 90W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
CONUS AND IS GENERATING NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
INLAND ALONG THE NW GULF COAST OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS AND
COULD SPILL OVER INTO THE NW GULF. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS
THROUGH THE W ATLC ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA TO OVER THE FAR E
GULF. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW GULF INTO EARLY
SAT. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE W GULF THROUGH SAT MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO NW GULF MON NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN W OF 70W WITH ZONAL W FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER FLOW IS ADVECTING UPPER MOISTURE
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-16N. AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS TO
OVER HISPANIOLA AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 63W-72W. CARIBBEAN RADARS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 75W-
81W. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO STRONG ON SUN AND SUN NIGHT OVER THE
WATERS N OF NW VENEZUELA. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED N OF HONDURAS TO 18N THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK
EXCEPT INCREASING TO STRONG EACH NIGHT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. 

HISPANIOLA...        

AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING SURFACE
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 22N70W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS N OF 17N TO OVER THE ISLAND E OF 72W. THIS SURFACE
TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SAT. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE SUN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...         

AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE W ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD
FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY N OF THE AREA WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N77W TO JUST OFFSHORE NEAR DAYTONA BEACH
FLORIDA. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ALSO SUPPORTED BY THIS UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 29N70W 16N71W 22N70W TO OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N71W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N TO OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO
HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 62W-73W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS N OF THE
SECOND SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS BERMUDA THROUGH A WEAK 1016 MB
HIGH NEAR 28N77W THEN ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE E GULF OF
MEXICO. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N59W TO 28N60W TO
24N63W. AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 52W PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-
28N BETWEEN 52W-61W. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IN THE E ATLC IS
SUPPORTING A WEAKENING 1010 MB LOW NEAR 29N34W WITH A
DISSIPATING OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING ALONG 30N31W TO 27N28W WITH
A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUING ALONG 20N32W TO 15N47W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE AREA FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN
25W-36W. A SURFACE TROUGH TRAILS THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 27N34W
ALONG 22N39W TO 23N44W. THE W ATLC PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH
WILL MOVE EASTWARD N OF 29N TO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH LATE SAT
WITH THE ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DIP S INTO THE W
ATLC EARLY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE THERE BY LATE SUN. A
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REBUILD BEHIND THE TROUGH AND FRONT OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE SURFACE TROUGH N OF HISPANIOLA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
SAT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$ 
PAW

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