Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 091746
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL  
105 PM EST MON NOV 09 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER 
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM IDA IS CENTERED NEAR 26.5N 88.3W AT 09/1500 UTC 
OR ABOUT 185 MILES...300 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUTH OF 
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND ABOUT 285 MILES...460 KM... 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MOVING NNW AT 15 KT. 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
WIND SPEED IS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. SEE LATEST NHC 
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC 
FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS 
NEAR THE CENTER FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 87W-89W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS E OF THE CENTER FROM 23N-33N BETWEEN 83W-86W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
NONE.

...ITCZ...

THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N13W 5N20W 8N50W 9N61W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA 
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 12W-18W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N 
BETWEEN 17W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N 
BETWEEN 37W-40W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL STORM IDA IS THE PRIMARY FEATURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. 
SEE ABOVE. IDA IS ENCOUNTERING INCREASED UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND 
COOLER SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES AND IS THUS WEAKENING. 
ELSEWHERE...NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE NW GULF 
OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 93W-95W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W GULF W OF 
90W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W WITH RIDGE 
AXIS ALONG 80W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N 
AND E GULF. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE. EXPECT...IDA TO MAKE LANDFALL OVER THE NE GULF COAST 
IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS WITH STRONGER WINDS AND CONVECTION MOSTLY 
N OF THE CENTER.   

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE TAIL END OF A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 
16N-22N E OF 62W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 60W-70W. ELSEWHERE... 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 
8N-12N BETWEEN 76W-85W. MORE SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 80W-86W. 
TRADEWINDS ARE MODERATE TO FRESH THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN. IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W. ANTICYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL FLOW COVERS THE 
ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE 
N CARIBBEAN FROM 15N-20N. EXPECT...CONTINUED SHOWERS AND 
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1034 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 37N67W. A STATIONARY 
FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 29N50W 19N62W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE 
FRONT FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A LARGE 1032 MB HIGH IS OVER 
THE E ATLANTIC E OF THE AZORES AT 37N22W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH NW UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC 
W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 55W-70W. AN 
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 40W-55W. AN UPPER LEVEL 
LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC AT 32N27W. OVER THE TROPICS AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 11N25W. 

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FORMOSA