000 AXNT20 KNHC 261108 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST THU NOV 26 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 9N13W 5N30W 4N50W...ACROSS A TINY PART OF BRAZIL...CENTRAL FRENCH GUIANA...INTO EASTERN SURINAME NEAR 4N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND NORTHEASTERN SOUTH AMERICA. THE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 20N45W TO 10N40W TROUGH IS PUSHING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THE CLOUDS THAT ARE FROM 10N TO 27N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 10N54W TO 18N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND 53W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE ITCZ NEAR 10N40W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC FLOW THAT COVERS THE U.S.A. TO THE EAST OF 105W SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT. THE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IS WESTERLY AND SOUTHWESTERLY. THE FRONT IS STATIONARY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THROUGH 31N77W TO FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE TO A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N83W. THE FRONT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WESTERN CUBA TO BELIZE AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN MEXICO IN BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ALL THE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE WATERS JUST OFF THE CUBA COAST NEAR 22N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W...AND A LITTLE BIT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 18N TO 22N TO THE WEST OF 81W. COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA. THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN ALONG THE NICARAGUA COAST...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE AREA OF A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING AND HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 64W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 39N56W TO 22N55W TO 17N55W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 21N44W TO 10N40W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GO FROM 10N TO 22N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A THIRD TROUGH IS ALONG 32N35W TO 25N38W. $$ MT
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