000
AXNT20 KNHC 011029
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu May 01 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N24W, 
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 02N40W and to
02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 60 nm 
northwest of the ITCZ between 21W-24W. Similar activity is 
south of the trough from the Equator to 07N between 10W-19W.

GULF OF AMERICA...
 
High pressure dominates the Gulf of America maintaining generally
dry conditions. High mostly thin debris cirrus clouds are moving 
eastward over the north-central and NE Gulf sections. Isolated 
showers and thunderstorms are just inland the coast of 
southeastern Mississippi while scattered to numerous showers and 
thunderstorms moving eastward are over northern and central 
Louisiana

The gradient between the high pressure and low pressure in Mexico
and southern Texas is allowing for generally fresh to locally 
strong east to southeast winds to exist over the southern Gulf, 
including the Straits of Florida as depicted in an overnight ASCAT
pass. Seas over these waters are 3 to 6 ft, except for higher 
seas of 6 to 8 ft over the Straits of Florida and 5 to 7 ft seas 
over the central Gulf. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are over the SW Gulf. 

For the forecast, high pressure will be main feature controlling 
the weather pattern across the Gulf through late Fri. Its 
associated pressure gradient will maintain moderate to fresh east 
to southeast winds over the basin through Sat morning. East
winds will pulse to strong speeds north of the Yucatan peninsula
and over the Bay of Campeche nightly through Fri in association
with a diurnal trough. Fresh to strong east winds across the 
Straits of Florida will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds this 
morning, change little through Sat night, then diminish to light 
to gentle speeds into early next week. Moderate seas in the 
Straits of Florida will subside today. Elsewhere, winds will 
diminish Fri into Sat for most of the zones. Looking ahead, a 
weak cold front may reach the NE Gulf Sat night before shifting 
east of the basin Sun. High pressure will then build southward 
across the Gulf leading to mostly fresh easterly winds over most 
of the forecast zones through early next week. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A broad upper-level trough that is over the central Atlantic
stretching southwestward to the Greater Antilles along with
a surface trough that extends from a weak central Atlantic low
to the eastern Caribbean is resulting in plenty of atmospheric 
instability over the eastern section of the sea. satellite imagery 
shows ample cloudiness over this part of the sea along with 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Some of this
activity is affecting the nearby islands. clusters of scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are also evident over the 
southwestern Caribbean, affecting Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia.
No deep convection is evident across the remainder of the basin.

The gradient that is in place is sustaining fresh to locally 
strong trades over the north-central Caribbean, through the
Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Seas over these waters 
are 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the combination of high pressure over the 
western Atlantic with relatively lower pressures in South America 
will maintain a gradient that will support fresh to strong 
northeast winds tonight through the Windward Passage and in the 
lee of Cuba. At the same time, fresh to strong northeast winds are
expected south of the Dominican Republic, mainly near Cabo Beata.
Fresh to strong northeast winds will materialize through the 
Windward Passage Fri night. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions are
expected over the basin into early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front enters the basin near 31N48W and continues 
southwestward to 26N59W. To its southeast, a trough extends from 
29N49W to low pressure of 1013 mb near 23N53W, and continues
southwestward to vicinity of Antigua and Barbuda. Numerous 
showers and thunderstorms are seen east of the trough from 23N to
29N between 46W and 51W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms 
are along and near the stationary front. Ample cloudiness is also
noted from the Leeward Islands and eastern Greater Antilles to 
the north-central Atlantic due to a broad upper-level trough.
Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds, as noted in 
overnight ASCAT satellite data passes, are to the west of the 
aforementioned boundaries. Moderate seas are with these winds.

A large and strong extratropical cyclone centered north of Madeira
Island supports fresh to strong westerly winds north of 28N and
east of 29W. Seas over these waters are 10-15 ft. Fresh to 
locally strong north winds are from 14N to 23N and east of 25W, 
along with seas of 7 to 10 ft. The rest of the basin is under the
influence of a broad subtropical ridge that is maintaining 
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas east 
of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure west of the 
aforementioned front and low pressure will remain about 
stationary through Fri, then begin to shift eastward into the 
weekend. The pressure gradient between the low and high pressure 
to its NW will induce fresh northeast winds north of 25N and east 
of 65W from Fri morning into the weekend. The low is forecast to 
slowly lift north-northeastward through Fri night, then weaken 
into a broad trough on Sat. Looking ahead, a weak cold front will 
emerge off the northeast Florida coast late Sat night into Sun. 


$$
Aguirre