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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271116
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
716 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is 
listed on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-
MARINE/BULLETIN/GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are 
forecast for the area that is called: IRVING. The OUTLOOK,
for the 24 hours that follow the forecast that is valid until
28/1200 UTC, consists of: the persistence of N or NE near gale
or gale in IRVING and METEOR.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W, to 03N18W. The ITCZ continues from 03N18W, to 01N25W,
03N30W, 02N37W, 03N45W, and 03N51W. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 01N to 03N
between 22W and 25W, and from 03N to 05N between 25W and 49W.
Isolated moderate elsewhere from 06N southward.

...DISCUSSION...

...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN, ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND 
FLORIDA, INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO...

Middle level-to-upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean and the Gulf of Mexico from 23N northward between 70W in 
the Atlantic Ocean and 83W in the Gulf of Mexico. This cyclonic 
wind flow spans the easternmost Gulf of Mexico, Florida, the 
Bahamas, and the Atlantic Ocean. Convective precipitation:
widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in the Bahamas from
22N to 26N between 73W and 76W.

An upper level trough is moving through the central sections of
the U.S.A. A cold front passes through SE Louisiana, into the NW
corner of the Gulf of Mexico, into the Deep South of Texas, and NE
Mexico near the border with Texas. Convective precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong is moving through Alabama.

Broad middle level-to-upper level westerly wind flow spans the
rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface ridge extends from the NW Bahamas, across Florida, into
the west central Gulf of Mexico, and to the SW corner of the Gulf
of Mexico.

...VISIBILITY AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES 
THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND 
FROM 88W WESTWARD...

Haze and 5 miles, in parts of the Texas coastal waters. Areas of 
mist and haze, and from 1 to 3 miles, in the coastal waters of 
SE Louisiana.

VISIBILITY AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. 
FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

ALABAMA: light rain in the southernmost parts. FLORIDA: rain has
ended for the moment in parts of the Panhandle. Mist, and 3 to 5 
miles with occasional less than 1 mile from Brooksville to the
Tampa Executive Airport. Fog and 1 mile or less in Punta Gorda.
Mist and 3 to 5 miles in the Ft. Myers metropolitan area. Fog and
1 mile or less in Naples.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from
17N southward from 84W eastward. Upper level NW wind flow is
moving from Cuba to Hispaniola toward the SE corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Some of the NW wind flow is associated with the
cyclonic wind flow that is moving around the Atlantic Ocean/ 
eastern Gulf of Mexico cyclonic wind flow, and associated with the
Atlantic Ocean 32N62W-to-12N59W trough. Upper level W wind flow 
covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective 
precipitation: isolated moderate from 17N to 20N between the Mona 
Passage and 80W, and from 12N to 17N between 56W in the Atlantic 
Ocean and 66W in the Caribbean Sea.

...HISPANIOLA...

Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across the 
island. Convective precipitation: earlier precipitation from six
hours ago has weakened and dissipated for the most part. Lingering
rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, inland and in the 
surrounding coastal waters.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR. for the
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. few cumulonimbus clouds. Santo
Domingo: VFR. La Romana and Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago: MVFR. 
ceiling 1600 feet. Puerto Plata: VFR. 

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that NW wind flow will
move across the area during the next 48 hours. The GFS MODEL 
forecast for 500 mb shows that a mixture of W and SW wind flow 
will move across Hispaniola during day one, of the 48-hour
forecast. Day two will consist of NW-to-W wind flow, on the SW
side of a trough. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that 
anticyclonic wind flow will move across the area during the first 
18 hours or so of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect broad
cyclonic wind flow for the rest of the time, with one definite
inverted trough, and possibly a second inverted trough, during
the rest of the time.

...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 32N62W, to 
24N59W, to 12N59W. No significant deep convective precipitation
is apparent.

A middle level-to-upper level trough passes through 34N24W, to 
26N30W and 16N37W. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic
Ocean from 25N northward between Africa and 30W. Convective 
precipitation: isolated moderate from 25N northward between Africa
and 32W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere, in scattered to 
broken low level clouds, to the north of 15N60W 15N40W 27N14W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 10N
to 25N between Africa and 30W, and in the Caribbean Sea and in the
Atlantic Ocean from 10N northward between 30W and 80W.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Apr-2017 11:17:10 UTC