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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 020007
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 01 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AT 2100 
UTC. AT 2/0000 UTC THE LOCATION OF THE DEPRESSION CENTER IS NEAR 
20.5N 93.7W...HOLDING A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THE 
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 KT AND THIS 
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF 24N IN 
THE SW GULF AND EXTEND INLAND INTO THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA...GUATEMALA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO. ON THE FORECAST 
TRACK...THE CENTER WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF MEXICO WITHIN THE 
WARNING AREA BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY 
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 17N24W TO 6N26W...MOVING WEST AT 5-10 KT. ENHANCED METEOSAT 
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IN THE 
WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO ISOLATED 
MODERATE FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 25W-31W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N42W TO 10N47W...MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. ENHANCED 
METEOSAT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SOME DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST 
IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS LIMITING THE CONVECTION TO 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM WEST OF THE AXIS S OF 14N. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 21N59W TO 9N59W...MOVING WEST AT 20 KT. UPPER 
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN ITS SOUTHERN 
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS FROM 
9N-14N BETWEEN 54W-63W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 20N70W TO 11N70W...MOVING WEST AT 15 KT. THE WAVE IS 
ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...STRONG 
DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR IS INHIBITING DEEP 
CONVECTION. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM 
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W 
AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N23W TO 6N34W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N34W 
TO 10N47W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N57W. FOR 
CONVECTION INFORMATION SEE THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION.

...DISCUSSION... 

GULF OF MEXICO...                                                

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE FORMED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLIER 
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS 
ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA AND IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT OVER THE NE GULF TO SUPPORT A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS 
WITHIN AN AREA BOUNDED BY A LINE FROM 30N87W TO 28N82W AND A 
LINE FROM 29N90W TO 23N83W. OTHERWISE...EXCEPT FOR THE SW 
GULF...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT 
PREVAILS. RAINSHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IN SPECIAL 
FEATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE W-SW GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITHIN THAT PERIOD. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                

MODERATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. A 
DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN COAST OF CUBA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS HAITI AND 
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ON THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN 
THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION. SEE THE 
TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. TRADES OF 10-15 KT 
SPREAD ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN...EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST OF 
COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT. A NEW TROPICAL WAVE WILL 
BE ENTERING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT BRINGING SHOWERS 
MAINLY TO THE SE BASIN.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT NEAR THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IN HAITI AND 
COASTAL WATERS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE 
ISLAND...HOWEVER STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THIS 
REGION OF THE CARIBBEAN IS HINDERING DEEP CONVECTION.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED 
NEAR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 73W. FARTHER EAST...A TROUGH ALOFT 
SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 29N48W TO 25N51W. SURFACE 
RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATE ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Tuesday, 02-Sep-2014 00:07:12 UTC