Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 231028

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
628 AM EDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1015 UTC.


A low presently over W Cuba will traverse S Florida to N of the
Bahamas in 24 hours. The pressure gradient between this low and 
a high to the east will result in gale force southeast winds late
Sunday through Monday night, N of 29N between 72W-75W, with seas 
to 12 ft. Please see the latest High Seas Forecast product 
under the WMO header FZNT02 KNHC and under the AWIPS header 
MIAHSFAT2 for further details.


The Monsoon Trough extends across the western Africa coast from 
08N13W to 05N16W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues 
from 05N16W to 01S30W to the South American coast near 03S43W. 
Widely scattered moderate convection is from 05S-06N between 15W-
28W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 30W-



As of 23/0900 UTC a cold front extends over the W Gulf of Mexico 
from S Alabama near 30N88W to N Mexico near 25N97W. Radar imagery
shows a line of thunderstorms from S Alabama to SE Louisiana, 
however, the remainder of the front over the W Gulf is void of 
precipitation. 20-25 kt N winds are N of the front. Elsewhere, a 
1007 mb low is centered over W Cuba near 22N83W. A surface trough
extends N from the low to the SE Gulf near 26N84W. Radar imagery 
shows scattered showers over the SE Gulf, S Florida, and the 
Straits of Florida, S of 28N and E of 84W. Broken multilayered 
clouds are over central Florida. Mostly fair weather is over the 
remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level trough 
is over the Gulf with axis along 90W. In addition, a small upper 
level low is embedded over the SE Gulf near 26N84W enhancing he 
cloudiness over central Florida. Expect in 24 hours for the cold 
front to extend from Jacksonville Florida to Tampico Mexico with 
scattered showers. 20-25 N winds will be N of front. Also expect 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to persist over S 
Florida and the Straits of Florida for the next 24 hours due to
the surface low.


A 1007 mb low is centered over W Cuba near 22N83W. A surface 
trough extends S from the low to W of Grand Cayman near 18N82W. 
Radar imagery and lightning data shows scattered showers and 
isolated thunderstorms E of the trough over central and E Cuba. 
More scattered showers are over Jamaica and Hispaniola. Another 
surface trough is over Belize and W Honduras from 18N88W to 
15N89W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Further
S, scattered moderate convection is inland over NW Venezuela. 
Scattered showers are over Panama, Costa Rica, and Honduras. 20-25
kt E wind are noted over the E Caribbean E of 74W. In the upper 
levels, mostly zonal flow is noted. Upper level moisture is over 
the N Caribbean from Cuba to the Leeward Islands. Expect over the 
next 24 hours for additional scattered showers to be over Puerto 
Rico, and the Leeward Islands.


Presently scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect Widely 
scattered moderate convection and scattered showers over the 
island for the next 24 hours. Expect the heaviest convection over 
the afternoon and evening hours, during maximum heating. 


Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over the 
Bahamas. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 
28N65W. The tail end of a cold front is over the central Atlantic
from 31N38W to 28N40W. A prefrontal trough extends from 31N32W to
25N40W. Scattered showers are E of the trough from 27N-34N 
between 32W-35W. A 1020 mb high is centered W of the Canary 
Islands near 30N20W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper 
level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 38N44W 
enhancing convection mostly E of the center. Expect over the next 
24 hours for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to 
persist over the Bahamas. Also expect the showers over the central
Atlantic to move E. 

For additional information please visit 


Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
Privacy Policy
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Sunday, 23-Apr-2017 10:28:50 UTC