AXNT20 KNHC 232326
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016
Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
A gale warning is in effect today for the waters of Canarias.
Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, listed
under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS EXPERTISES...GRAND
LARGE...METAREA II, or on the website: WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM
A tropical wave is over the eastern Tropical Atlantic with axis
from 19N39W to 06N40W, moving west at 15 kt. The wave coincides
with a well defined 700 mb trough as depicted in the global
models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on the SSMI
Total Precipitable Water imagery. No deep convection is
observed at this time as Saharan dust is located north of 15N.
A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean and Central
America with axis from 20N85W to 10N84W, moving west at 10-15 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is located over the NW
Caribbean north of 15N west of 82W.
A tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche with axis
from 21N94W to 12N96W, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers
are within 90 nm of the wave axis over southern Mexico.
The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 21N16W and continues to 10N29W to 08N41W where the
ITCZ begins and continues to 06N54W. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is located within 60 nm either side of a line
from 07N38W to 06N32W.
GULF OF MEXICO...
A tropical wave is over the western Bay of Campeche. Please
refer to the section above for details. Elsewhere, a ridge
extends across the basin anchored by a 1022 mb high centered
over the Atlantic near 35N57W. A weakening 1017 mb high is
located over the north central Gulf near 28N92W. In the upper
levels, an upper level high is centered over Mississippi near
33N90W with moderate easterly winds over the entire basin.
Scattered moderate convection is over the SE Gulf south of 27N
east of 88W. Strong convection is approaching the eastern Bay
of Campeche from the east.
A tropical wave is moving across the western Caribbean and
Central America. Please refer to the section above for details.
15-20 kt tradewinds are over most of the Caribbean Sea.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is located from 10N-13N
west of 82W into Nicaragua. In the upper levels, easterly flow
is over the eastern two-thirds of the Caribbean with strong
subsidence as shown by water vapor imagery east of 68W.
Generally, fair weather prevails across the island at this time
under easterly flow. This pattern will prevail through the next
24 hours as Saharan dust and dry air dominates the area.
A tropical wave is moving over the eastern Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A surface trough is over
the western Atlantic from 28N75W to 24N77W. A 1022 mb high
centered over the western Atlantic is located near 35N57W.
A large 1032 mb high is over the eastern Atlantic near the
Azores at 39N33W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level
low is centered just north of the Bahamas near 28N79W enhancing
showers. Broad ridging covers a large part of the Atlantic
north of 12N east of 65W.
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