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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 250005
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION                                    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL                         
805 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2345 UTC.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W SW 
TO 03N14W TO 03N18W WHERE THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
AXIS CONTINUES TO 01S31W 02S40W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF BRAZIL 
NEAR 01S51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08S TO 01N W 
OF 32W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A 
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW 
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING 
THE DISCUSSION AREA IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...WHICH THEN 
TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR FORT MYERS AND CONTINUES 
ACROSS THE NE GULF ALONG 26N82W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR 29N90W. 
SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW OF 5 TO 15 KT IS BANKING 
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF...THUS SUPPORTING FOG 
ON THE NW BASIN N OF 26N W OF 90W AND SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 200 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N 
OF 29N. OVER THE SE GULF...SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A WEAK CENTER OF 
HIGH PRESSURE OF 1014 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 25N83W. FAIR WEATHER IS 
ACROSS THE REMAINDER GULF S OF 25N BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR 
SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A 1017 MB HIGH OVER SOUTH CAROLINA AND 
GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS SW ACROSS THE GULF. LOW PRESSURE WILL 
START TO BUILD OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY SUNDAY MORNING 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF 
THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS EARLY MONDAY. A SECONDARY FRONT 
IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OFF THE NW GULF COAST EARLY TUESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG WITH 
DEEP LAYER DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN SUPPORT 
STABLE CONDITIONS AND FAIR WEATHER. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N ATLC IS BEING 
ADVECTED TO THE NW CARIBBEAN BY N-NE WIND FLOW...THUS ENHANCING 
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER NW AND SOUTHERN CUBA AND 
ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT 
SUPPORT TRADES OF 15 KT S OF 16N BETWEEN 61W AND 80W AND 
VARIABLE LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY.

...HISPANIOLA...                                         

SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE SW N 
ATLC IS BEING ADVECTED BY NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN 
ISLAND. THIS MOISTURE IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS OVER HAITI AND 
WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS. A 
MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE ISLAND MAY CONTINUE 
TO ENHANCE SHOWERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               

A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER MAINE SUPPORTS A 
COMPLEX SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W-NW ATLC. THE LOW 
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGHING ALOFT SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ENTERING 
THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM 30N65W SW TO 28N75W TO FORT MYERS WHERE 
IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NE GULF. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 28N 
BETWEEN 60W AND 68W. A SECOND COLD FROM EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB 
LOW NEAR 31N51W AND CONTINUES ALONG 25N59W TO 24N69W. NUMEROUS 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 260 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 
23N. SURFACE RIDGING AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR

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Page last modified: Saturday, 25-Apr-2015 00:06:02 UTC