321 
AXNT20 KNHC 252314
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon May 26 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 33W, south of 15N, moving 
west at 10 to 15 kt. Convection is limited near the wave axis. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, south of 15N, moving 
west at 15 to 20 kt. The wave is moving across the eastern
Caribbean producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.
It is also enhancing convection over eastern Venezuela. The wave 
is forecast to move through the eastern Caribbean through Mon, 
across the central Caribbean by late Tue, and into the southwest 
Caribbean through mid week. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters off the coast of
Africa near 10N14W and extends SW to near 05N20W. The ITCZ 
continues from 06N20W to 04N32W to 04N50W. Aside from convection
discussed in the tropical waves section above, scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 10W and 
14W, and from 04N to 07N between 35W and 51W. 

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb
high centered in the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between the
area of high pressure and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting
moderate to fresh winds over the western Gulf. Light to gentle
winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate winds are
found elsewhere. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range over the western
Gulf and 1 to 3 ft over the eastern Gulf. Showers and thunderstorms
are noted over parts of Florida. Visible satellite imagery showed 
light smoke over the western Gulf creating hazy conditions. 

For the forecast, high pressure will continue across the NE Gulf
through mid-week, supporting moderate to fresh SE wind across 
the western half of the Gulf. Fresh NE to E winds will pulse 
along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and 
evening through Thu night as a trough develops inland daily and 
then drifts westward to the Bay of Campeche at night. Smoke from 
agricultural fires in SE Mexico are expected to maintain hazy sky
conditions across the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf through 
the early part of the week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA... 

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Please,
see the Tropical Waves section for more details.

High pressure prevails over the Atlantic waters north of the 
basin. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure 
and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong winds 
over the south-central Caribbean where seas are in the 8 to 11 ft
range based on a couple of altimeter passes and buoy 
observations. Mainly fresh winds are observed over the remainder 
of the E and central Caribbean, including also the SW Caribbean 
with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail 
over the NW Caribbean with seas of 3 to 5 ft. 

For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft
in the south-central and southwest Caribbean through Thu night. 
Winds will likely pulse to near-gale force off Colombia tonight. 
Moderate to fresh trades are forecast for the majority of the 
remainder basin, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds in the 
Gulf of Honduras at night. A tropical wave entering the eastern 
Caribbean will continue to enhance the winds and seas over the 
tropical Atlantic waters mainly east of the Windward Islands 
through Mon. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1029 mb located just W of the Azores dominates 
the Atlantic discussion waters N of 20N. Under the influence of
this system, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft 
prevail over the waters N of 20N, with moderate to fresh winds
and seas of 5 to 8 ft S of 20N. Fresh E winds are also noted near
the entrance to the Windward Passage. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic subtropical ridge will
persist from east to west along roughly 28N through Thu night, 
supporting moderate to fresh winds south of 25N, except for 
locally strong winds just north of Hispaniola pulsing tonight and
Mon night. Otherwise, a series of weak frontal troughs will 
sweep eastward across the waters north of the ridge and between 
northeast Florida and Bermuda through Thu. Looking ahead, the 
ridge will start to shift eastward Fri ahead of a front moving 
off the Carolina coast.

$$
GR