000
AXNT20 KNHC 301614
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Apr 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1614 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W and continues southwestward to 05N22W. 
The ITCZ extends from 05N22W to 02N34W to 01S45W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 06N 
and east of 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Isolated to scattered moderate convection is depicted in the 
eastern and western Gulf of Mexico in association with a surface 
trough. A ridge of high pressure associated with a 1022 mb high 
pressure system in the western Atlantic extends into the Gulf 
and is sustaining gentle to moderate E-SE winds over much of the 
basin. Seas of 5-7 ft are occurring west of 85W and south of 
25N, while 2-5 ft seas are found elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge and 
lower pressures in Texas and Mexico will support fresh to 
occasionally strong winds in the western half of the Gulf Wed 
night into the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail in 
the eastern half of the Gulf. Winds will pulse to strong speeds 
nightly near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local 
effects induced by a thermal trough.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Pockets of low-level moisture in the Caribbean Sea are producing 
isolated moderate convection north of Jamaica. High pressure 
north of the islands supports moderate to fresh easterly winds 
across the basin, pulsing to strong speeds in the Gulf of 
Honduras, Windward Passage and offshore southern Hispaniola. 
Seas are 4-7 ft in the central Caribbean, including the Windward 
Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. Northerly swell is pushing 
through the water passages in the NE Caribbean resulting in seas 
of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to 
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a 1022 mb high pressure system north of the 
area supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds over much 
of the Caribbean Sea. Strong speeds are found in the Gulf of 
Honduras, offshore southern Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. 
The ridge is expected to slide eastward and weaken over the next 
few days, resulting in more tranquil marine conditions midweek 
and into the weekend. Northerly swell will support rough seas 
through the passages in the NE Caribbean through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N39W to 25N43W, then it becomes 
stationary to 22N50W. It is at 22N50W where it becomes a shear 
line that continues to the NE Caribbean. Scattered moderate 
convection is found ahead of the front, north of 25N. Fresh to
strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present ahead of 
the front to 35W and north of 27N. 

A 1022 mb high pressure system located between Bermuda
and the Bahamas dominates the SW N Atlantic. The pressure 
gradient between the ridge and a cold front north of Bermuda 
sustain fresh to locally strong westerly winds north of 30N and 
between 51W and 59W. Seas in the area described are 9-11 ft. 
Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 7-10 ft are evident 
south of 22N and west of 55W. In the remainder of the SW North 
Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas 
are prevalent.

In the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic, a 1029 mb high
pressure system near the Azores is the most prominent feature. 
The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in 
western Africa sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds north of 
15N and east of 30W. Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a 1022 mb high pressure system 
located between Bermuda and the Bahamas dominates the SW N 
Atlantic. Moderate to fresh W winds and long period northerly 
swell with peak seas near 12 ft are affecting the waters N of 
29N and E of 65W. These marine conditions will slide eastward as 
a cold front reaches the NE waters later today. Moderate to 
fresh easterly winds will continue over the waters S of 24N and 
W of 60W through Wed, especially in the approaches of the 
Windward Passage. More tranquil marine conditions are expected 
afterwards as high pressure becomes centered over the NW waters.

$$
KRV