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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 280454

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1254 AM EDT TUE JUN 28 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0415 UTC.

Tropical wave extends from 06N31W to 17N38W moving W at 15 kt.
The wave coincides with broad 700 mb troughing between 25W-40W
and remains embedded within Saharan dust. As a
significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this

Tropical wave extends from 04N56W to 12N53W moving W at 10-15 kt.
The wave coincides with 700 mb troughing between 52W-58W. No
significant deep convection is occurring with the wave at this

The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 17N16W to
08N23W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone axis extends from
08N23W to 05N32W to 06N46W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is from 11N-16N between 13W-19W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-08N between 14W-36W.


Primarily easterly flow aloft prevails between an inverted upper
level trough over the SW Gulf waters and an upper level ridge axis
extending along 32N over the SE CONUS. Upper level diffluence
associated with the ridging and weak mid-level shortwave energy
noted on water vapor imagery over the lower Mississippi River
valley is supporting a 1014 mb low centered across SE Louisiana
and generating scattered showers and tstms N of 29N between 89W-
95W...including inland portions of southern Mississippi...
Louisiana...and far SE Texas. Otherwise...the remainder of the
basin remains relatively tranquil due to a weak ridge axis
extending across the basin along 25N. Generally gentle to
occasional moderate anticyclonic winds are expected through
Wednesday as the ridge axis remains nearly stationary. This
overall synoptic pattern is anticipated through the remainder of
the week.

An upper level anticyclone is centered over the western Caribbean
near 13N82W and along with a tropical wave currently across El
Salvador and Guatemala is providing focus for scattered showers
and tstms generally S of 17N W of 81W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a very broad troughing aloft with
axis along 73W. Mostly dry air is associated with the troughing W
of 73W...however a few isolated showers and tstms are occurring in
the adjacent coastal waters off of Cuba this evening. E of 73W...
scattered middle to upper level cloudiness is evident on satellite
imagery due to moist southwesterly flow aloft...however conditions
at the surface remain mostly fair. While moderate to fresh trade
prevail across much of the basin...fresh to strong trades persist
S of 16N between 68W-80W due to a strengthened pressure gradient
across the south-central Caribbean region. Little change is
expected during the next 24 to 36 hours.

Currently...mostly fair conditions prevail as earlier isolated
showers and tstms have dissipated. Southwesterly flow aloft is
noted on water vapor imagery this evening...and this environment
along with peak daytime heating and instability will promote
isolated showers and tstms Tuesday late afternoon into the early

A 1014 mb surface low is centered across the SW North Atlc
centered E of the Georgia coast near 31N79W. A weak frontal trough
extends SW from the low and across the northern and central
Florida peninsula into the Gulf of Mexico with no significant
convection occurring at this time. The remainder of the basin is
dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1036 high centered NW
of the Azores near 41N33W.

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