| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 271752
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
805 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES... 

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA AS OF 27/1500 UTC WAS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 
63.3W OR ABOUT 110 NM W OF GUADELOUPE...MOVING W AT 14 KT. 
ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 
ARE 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. PLEASE SEE 
THE LATEST FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. 

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 
17N25W TO 09N25W...MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HRS. 
SSMI TPW INDICATES MODERATE MOISTURE S OF 15N IN THE ENVIRONMENT 
OF THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N TO 11N 
BETWEEN 21W AND 27W. 

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 21N43W TO 11N44W...MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT DURING THE PAST 
24 HOURS. A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH 
THIS WAVE AS INDICATED BY TPW SSMI IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO 
EVIDENT ALONG THE WAVE. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS NOTED WITH THIS 
WAVE AT THIS TIME. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 
16N16W TO 12N24W THEN CONTINUES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 11N27W 
TO A 1012 MB LOW NEAR 10N32W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR THIS LOW AND 
CONTINUES TO 10N43W. OTHER THAN THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE WAVE NEAR THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 06N TO 14N BETWEEN 28W AND 41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN US SW 
ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A BASE NEAR 20N. THIS TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM N FL NEAR 30N83W 
TO 25N86W TO 23N94W. A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS 
S FL TO 24N83W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIO0N IS FROM 25N TO 
29N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE FL PENINSULA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW GULF FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 88W 
AND 97W AND IS BEING SUPPORTED BY A COMBINATION OF THE 
STATIONARY FRONT AND A DIURNAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 
22N96W TO 18N94W. DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE GULF NW OF 
THE STATIONARY FRONT. 10 TO 15 KT N TO NE WINDS COVER THE GULF N 
OF THE FRONT AND OVER THE SW GULF. SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT COVER 
THE SE GULF. THE MID TO UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN TACT ACROSS 
THE BASIN THROUGH FRIDAY WHICH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION OVER THE 
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN GULF THROUGH THAT TIME. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

THE BASE OF THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GULF RESIDES 
ALONG 20N. THIS SUPPORTS ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND DEEP 
MOISTURE SUPPORTS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 12N E OF 78W 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IS OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE 
DETAILS. ASIDE FROM THE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA...GENTLE TO 
MODERATE TRADE WINDS COVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. CONVECTION 
AND WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKA WILL SPREAD W TO NW OVER THE NE 
CARIBBEAN. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                               
GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WESTERN PORTIONS 
OF THE ISLAND TODAY. SHOWERS ARE INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON OVER 
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND WELL IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL 
STORM ERIKA. ERIKA IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF 
HISPANIOLA ON FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING AND 
MUDSLIDES WILL BECOME POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN... 

A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND GULF OF 
MEXICO SUPPORTS A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 
21N76W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 25N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 25N TO 31N BETWEEN 72W AND 
THE FL PENINSULA. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH...FORMERLY THE REMNANTS 
OF DANNY...EXTENDS FROM 23N75W TO 19N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS N OF 22N WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OVER THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. PLEASE SEE THE SPECIAL 
FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. SURFACE RIDGING OVER THE 
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS 
NEAR 28N61W AND 31N25W. THIS RIDGING SUPPORTS GENERALLY FAIR 
WEATHER OVER THE SUBTROPICAL N ATLC E OF 67W. TWO TROPICAL WAVES 
ARE OVER THE TROPICAL ATLC. PLEASE REFER TO THE TROPICAL WAVES 
SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT 
CONVECTION TO CONTINUE OVER THE W ATLC OVER THE BAHAMAS AND 
NEARBY WATERS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE 
WEST OF THE AREA. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO

Standard version of this page

Alternate Formats
About Alternates - E-Mail Advisories - RSS Feeds

Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory - Past Advisories - About Advisories

Marine Forecasts
Latest Products - About Marine Products

Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery - US Weather Radar - Aircraft Recon - Local Data Archive - Forecast Verification - Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense

Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names Wind Scale - Prepare - Climatology - NHC Glossary - NHC Acronyms - Frequently Asked Questions - AOML Hurricane-Research Division

About Us
About NHC - Mission/Vision - Other NCEP Centers - NHC Staff - Visitor Information - NHC Library

Contact Us


NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 27-Aug-2015 17:52:58 UTC