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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

AXNT20 KNHC 212344

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
744 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2330 UTC.


A cold front extends from 23N98W to 27N90W to 30N84W. Scatterometer
data depicts gale force winds already occurring from 21N-25N and
west of 97W. These conditions will continue through the next 24
hours mainly south of 25N and west of the front as it moves south
across the Gulf of Mexico. Please read the High Seas Forecast...
MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...and the Offshore Forecast...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24
KNHC...for more details.

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. The Outlook, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 22/1200 UTC, consists of the
persistence of a west or northwest near gale or gale in the
northern part of IRVING and the northern part of MADEIRA.


An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends its axis from 17N48W to
05N49W, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate
convection is from 07N-15N between 38W-53W.


The Monsoon Trough passes through the coast of Africa reaching the
eastern Atlantic near 12N17W to 08N21W. The ITCZ continues from
08N21W to 07N30W and 11N41W. Aside from the convection related to
the tropical wave described above, isolated showers are within 50
nm on either side of the ITCZ between 24W-36W.



As of 21/1800 UTC, a cold front extends from 23N98W to 27N90W to
30N84W, with gale force winds occurring from 21N-25N and west of
97W. Please refer to the section above for details. To the
southwest across the Bay of Campeche, a surface trough extends
from 22N93W to 18N93W. Scattered showers are observed along and
west of the front from 20N-22N. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh northerly winds north of the front while gentle
to moderate westerly winds prevail south of the front. Expect
during the next 24 hours for the front to continue moving south
across the basin. High pressure will build in the wake of the


A 1009 mb surface low continues across the southwest Caribbean
near 16N81W with surface trough extending from the low to 18N78W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed along the trough. A
diffluent flow aloft is supporting scattered moderate convection
across the north-central Caribbean affecting portions of
Hispaniola and the Windward Passage. Fair weather prevails
elsewhere. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle trades
across the basin. Little change is expected through the next 24


Scattered moderate convection is observed across the western
portion of the island supported by a diffluent flow aloft that
prevails across the area. A similar pattern will prevail through
the next 24 hours.


A tropical wave is moving across the central Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. A 1002 mb surface low is
centered near 31N72W. To the southeast of it, a diffluent flow
aloft is supporting scattered convection south of 26N between
65W-73W. To the east, a cold front extends from 27N42W to 28N25W
to 32N20W. Isolated showers are observed along the front between
34W-41W. A surface trough extends from 26N38W to 20N38W. Surface
ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1033 mb high centered near 46N49W. 

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