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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 111033
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUL 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1030 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                            
TROPICAL WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 22N26W TO 9N31W MOVING W AT 15 KT. THE WAVE  
CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER...THEREFORE NO 
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N62W TO 10N66W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WHICH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS 
E-SE OF A LINE FROM 18N64W TO 11N70W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS 
EXTENDING FROM 20N73W TO 10N75W MOVING W AT 20 KT. DRY AIR FROM 
A SAHARAN AIRMASS IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT 
WHICH ALONG STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IN THE 
CARIBBEAN HINDER CONVECTION AT THE TIME. HOWEVER...LIFTING OF 
MOIST AIR IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED IN 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THUS ENHANCING SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF 
THE AXIS FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 73W-77W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST NEAR 
13N16W TO 10N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS BEGINS 
NEAR 10N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N37W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN 
COAST NEAR 5N53W. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH 
THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS LOCATED 
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 21W-29W...FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 34W-39W AND 
FROM 5N-9N W OF 51W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
THE NORTH ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS 
SW INTO THE GULF THUS SUSTAINING HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE 
BASIN. THE SURFACE RIDGE IN THE GULF IS BEING ANCHORED BY A 1019 
MB HIGH OVER THE NE WATERS NEAR 28N87W AND PROVIDES E-SE WIND 
FLOW OF 5-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF...BEING THE STRONGEST 
WINDS AT THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. EXCEPT FOR THE W-NW GULF AT THE 
LOWER-LEVELS...DEEP LAYER MOIST AIR IS PRESENT ACROSS THE 
REMAINDER BASIN. IN THE W GULF...BOTH DRY AIR AND DEEP LAYER 
STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL WIND SHEAR INHIBIT CONVECTION. THE SW AND E 
BASIN ARE ALSO DEVOID OF CONVECTION AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS 
ARE NOT FAVORING AIR LIFTING. THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE IS 
FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE N-NE GULF THROUGH SUN NIGHT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
THE NORTH ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO EXTEND A RIDGE AXIS 
SW INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN WATERS. THIS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN 
BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE BETWEEN 64W-
80W. EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL BASIN WHERE DRY 
AIR FROM A SAHARAN AIRMASS LINGERS...THE REMAINDER BASIN SHOW A 
MOISTURE INCREASE. HOWEVER...STRONG DEEP LAYER ENVIRONMENTAL 
SHEAR OVER THE THE SW AND CENTRAL BASIN HINDERS THE DEVELOPMENT 
OF CONVECTION AT THE TIME. TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE MOVING ACROSS 
THE CARIBBEAN. SEE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION ABOVE FOR DETAILS. 
OTHERWISE...AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER 
THE WINDWARD PASSAGE SUPPORT SHOWERS AND TSTMS BETWEEN 
CUBA...JAMAICA AND HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 74W-77W. 
SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER COASTAL WATERS OF SE CUBA.

...HISPANIOLA...                                                 
A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE 
WINDWARD PASSAGE EXTENDS A TROUGH TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THIS IS 
SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AS 
WELL AS HAITI COASTAL WATERS. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
THROUGH SAT MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES SLOWLY NW TO EASTERN 
CUBA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                               
NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER HAPPENING IN THE BASIN. THIS IS DUE TO 
THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC 
AS WELL AS THE NORTH ATLC SUBTROPICAL HIGH. OVER THE TROPICAL 
ATLC...A WAVE IS WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS WITH NO 
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. SEE THE TROPICAL SECTION ABOVE FOR 
MORE MORE INFORMATION. OTHERWISE...BESIDES A SURFACE TROUGH FOR 
THE SW N ATLC...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE 
VISIT WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR


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Page last modified: Friday, 11-Jul-2014 10:34:04 UTC