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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 261803
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...                                           

...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...                      
A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR W ATLC AT 26/1200 UTC THROUGH 18 
UTC. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 31N79W TO A 1013 
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N81W AND ACROSS S FL. STRONG S TO SW WINDS 
UP TO 35 KT ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 90 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 
29N WITH SEAS OF 9 TO 11 FT. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS.  

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 7N12W TO 6N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 5N30W TO 7N43W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 
10N BETWEEN 21W AND 41W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...      

AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND OVER THE GULF 
ALONG 90W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE SE GULF NEAR 26N82W TO W CUBA NEAR 
23N84W. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. 
THE REMINDER OF THE BASIN IS CLOUD FREE WITH DRY AIR AND 
SUBSIDENCE IN PLACE. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN 
MEXICO NEAR 25N101W. THIS HIGH IS PROVIDING COLD ADVECTION OVER 
ALL QUADRANTS OF THE GULF EXCEPT THE NW BASIN. GUSTS UP TO 25 KT 
ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 100 NM OF THE FRONT. THE NW BASIN NEARER TO 
THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER HAS SW WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT. OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE BASIN.  A SECONDARY 
COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE NE BASIN THURSDAY WITH BREEZY 
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS 
THE BASIN ON THURSDAY. 

CARIBBEAN SEA... 

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF EXTENDS OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT ACROSS FL AND SE 
GULF...CROSSING OVER W CUBA NEAR 22N84W AND OVER THE NW 
CARIBBEAN TO 17N87W AND THEN THE COAST OF BELIZE NEAR 16N89W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE 
FRONT. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS EAST OF THE FRONT BETWEEN THE 
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND AN UPPER TROUGH OVER 
THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 22N 
BETWEEN 75W AND 81W. SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS S OF 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. THIS CONVECTION IS 
BEING ENHANCED BY THE INTERACTION OF THE NEARBY MONSOON TROUGH 
WITH THE AREA OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. A WEAK MID LEVEL 
DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN 
THE E CARIBBEAN WITHIN 70 NM OF 15N68W. TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 
KT ARE OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SE WINDS OF 10 TO 
15 KT ARE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND NW AT 
10 TO 20 KT BEHIND THE FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD 
FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE SE WITH CONVECTION. 

HISPANIOLA...         
AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC AND OVER 
HISPANIOLA. THIS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY 
AND THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE ISLAND FROM THE NW 
WILL INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY FRIDAY.              

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST AND GULF SUPPORTS A COLD 
FRONT FROM 31N79W TO A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 29N81W AND 
ACROSS S FL. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE AHEAD OF PORTIONS OF THIS 
FRONT. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE 
WITHIN 100 NM E OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 
NEAR 22N48W IS SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 22N44W 
TO 17N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N TO 26N 
BETWEEN 41W AND 54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 M OF EITHER 
SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. THE REST OF THE BASIN FROM 15N TO 31N 
IS DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER WITH A LARGE 
1034 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 36N42W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE 
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WITH CONVECTION. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
LATTO



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Page last modified: Wednesday, 26-Nov-2014 18:04:12 UTC