Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)

AXNT20 KNHC 191740

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thu Jan 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1715 UTC.


A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to 26N70W to 
31N77W moving E. Gale force winds are E of front to a line 
31N60W to 28N63W with SW to W winds 30-35 kt. Seas are 8-12 ft. 
Gale force winds are forecast to persist E of front for the next 
42 hours. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO 
headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details.


The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 06N10W to 
04N13W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone continues from 04N13W 
to 02N30W to the coast of South America near 02S43W. Scattered 
moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 10W-17W...and from 
03S-05N between 27W-47W.



A quasi-stationary front is over the W Gulf of Mexico from Lake 
Charles Louisiana to Brownsville Texas to Tampico Mexico with 
scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the front. A 
prefrontal trough extends from 29N93W to 26N95W. Again, 
scattered moderate convection within 90 nm of the trough. The 
remainder of the Gulf has fair weather. 10 kt NW winds are W of 
front. The remainder of the Gulf of Mexico has 5-20 kt SE to S 
surface flow with strongest winds over the SW Gulf. In the upper 
levels, an upper level trough is over N Mexico with axis along 
100W producing upper level diffluence is E of the trough axis 
over SE Texas and the NW Gulf. An upper level ridge is over the 
Gulf with axis along 83W. Strong subsidence is E of 90W and S of 
25N. Expect in 24 hours for the front to lift N of 30N. 


15-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean Sea with strongest 
winds along the coast of N Colombia. Scattered showers are 
inland over Nicaragua, Honduras, and Belize. In the upper 
levels, an upper level ridge is over the W Caribbean W of 70W. 
An upper level trough is over the E Caribbean. Very strong 
subsidence is over the entire Caribbean. Expect over the next 24 
hours for scattered showers to advect over the Windward Islands 
from the Atlantic. 


Mostly fair weather is over the island with 10-15 NE winds. 
Expect little change over the next 24 hours.  


A 1019 mb high is centered over the Bahamas near 25N77W. A cold 
front is presently over the W Atlantic from 31N62W to 26N70W to 
31N77W moving E. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the 
front. A gale is also E of the front. See above. A stationary 
front is over the E Atlantic from 31N29W to 27N45W. Scattered 
showers are within 60 nm of the front. Expect over the next 24 
hours for W Atlantic front to move rapidly E with showers. Also 
expect the E Atlantic stationary front to dissipate.  

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Page last modified: Thursday, 19-Jan-2017 17:41:15 UTC