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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion



000
AXNT20 KNHC 280952
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...                                     

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WATERS WITH AXIS EXTENDING 
FROM 19N39W TO 8N36W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT DURING THE PAST 24 
HOURS. THE NORTHERN WAVE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES EMBEDDED IN THE 
DRY SAHARAN AIR LAYER WHICH IS INHIBITING CONVECTION N OF 14N. 
SOUTH OF 14N...THE SSMI TPW IMAGERY SHOW THE WAVE IS IN A DEEP 
LAYER MOIST ENVIRONMENT WHICH ALONG UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS 
SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-
41W. GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE IS POSSIBLE BY THE MIDDLE 
OF THE WEEK AS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. 
SEE LATEST NHC TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS 
MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. ITS AXIS EXTENDS FROM 
19N85W TO 8N86W MOVING W AT 20-25 KT IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE 
WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH ALONG 
UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 18N W OF 81W. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...                                     

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 
11N16W AND THEN CONTINUES ALONG 9N26W TO 9N40W. THE 
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 9N40W TO 8N50W 
TO 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO COME OFF THE AFRICAN COAST IS 
FROM 5N-13N E OF 18W. THE OTHER AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC. SEE ABOVE FOR 
DETAILS.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               

EXCEPT FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE BAY OF 
CAMPECHE...MOSTLY DRY AIR IS ACROSS THE BASIN AT THE LOWER 
LEVELS AND UPPER LEVELS. AT THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...THE SE 
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS INTO THE GULF 
AND SUPPORT A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 27N88W WHICH IS PROVIDING 
VARIABLE WINDS OF 5-15 KT BASIN-WIDE. AN UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC 
CIRCULATION IS OVER THE SW GULF SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH 
ALONG 21N91W TO 17N93W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 20N 
E OF 94W. ELSEWHERE...AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS 
CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL 
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...                                               

TROPICAL WAVE FORMERLY ALONG 82W IS NOW MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL 
AMERICA. THIS WAVE IS ASSOCIATED WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER 
MOISTURE WHICH IS SUPPORTING CLOUDINESS ACROSS GREAT PORTIONS OF 
THE CENTRAL AND SW BASIN. IN ADDITION...THE WAVE SUPPORTS 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE 
HONDURAS COAST AND TRADES OF 20-25 KT S OF 17N W OF 80W. SEE 
TROPICAL WAVE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A MID-UPPER LEVEL 
ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS SE ACROSS 
THE BAHAMAS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 
22N62W IS GENERATING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN 
CARIBBEAN TO SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
OVER EASTERN CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. CLEAR SKIES AND TRADES OF 10-
15 KT DOMINATE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN. SHOWERS ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NW CARIBBEAN 
BASIN THROUGH TUE MORNING. 

...HISPANIOLA...                                                

CURRENTLY...A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT GENERATED BY THE SE 
PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ANCHORED OVER TEXAS AND AN UPPER LOW OVER 
THE SW N ATLC SUPPORT CLOUDINESS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS 
ACROSS THE ISLAND. EXCEPT FOR AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS 
BEING ENHANCED BY DAYTIME HEATING...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE 
FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WED.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                              

A MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N63W CONTINUES TO SUPPORT 
SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 67W-71W WHILE ANOTHER 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 57W-60W. OVER THE E ATLC...A MID-
UPPER LEVEL LOW N OF THE AREA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY THAT TRANSITIONS TO A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 30N26W SW TO 
26N37W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. THE REMAINDER 
BASIN IS FAIRLY DRY AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE RIDGING 
ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NEAR 32N53W AND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 
33N44W. THESE TWO FACTORS SUPPORTS FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE 
BASIN. OTHERWISE...SEE ABOVE THE TROPICAL WAVES SECTION. SURFACE 
RIDGING WILL DOMINATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC THE 
NEXT TWO DAYS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE 
SW N ATLC BY TUE NIGHT AND WED MORNING. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
NR



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Page last modified: Monday, 28-Jul-2014 09:52:22 UTC