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Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (Text)



000
AXNT20 KNHC 301120
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
720 AM EDT Tue May 30 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Please refer to the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, that is
listed under the following links: MARINE...BULLETINS
EXPERTISES...GRAND LARGE...METAREA II...or on the website:
WWW.METEOFRANCE.COM/PREVISIONS-METEO-MARINE/BULLETIN/
GRANDLARGE/METAREA2. Gale-force winds are forecast for the area
that is called: AGADIR. The OUTLOOK, for the 24 hours that follow
the forecast that is valid until 31/1200 UTC, consists of: north
near gale or at times gale in AGADIR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave extends from the Cabo Verde
Islands to 10N25W and 04N26W, moving westward 20 knots. 
Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated 
strong from 02N to 09N between 26W and 36W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W/41W from 12N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Convective 
precipitation: isolated moderate from 09N southward between 37W 
and 46W. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W/63W, from 14N 
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. The wave is moving into
the area of an upper level trough. Convective precipitation:
isolated moderate from 15N southward between 60W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 15N 
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective 
precipitation: no significant deep convective precipitation
that just is related to the tropical wave.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal near
14N17W, to 11N21W. The ITCZ is along 04N26W to the Equator along
40W. , 02N38W, to the Equator along 50W. Convective 
precipitation: scattered moderate to strong from 03N to 05N 
between 02W and 06W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
along the coast of South America between 50W and 60W. Isolated 
moderate elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.

...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level ridge passes through the Florida Big Bend to the
Yucatan Peninsula. A stationary front is in Texas, from East
Texas, into south central Texas, beyond the Texas Big Bend.
A surface trough extends from coastal Mississippi, to a 1013 mb 
low pressure center that is near 27N94W, to 23N95W. A semi- 
permanent trough is inland along the NW coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 27N northward between the Florida Panhandle and 94W, and from
22N southward between 90W and 95W.

Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 90W
eastward. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N84W.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM 
SITES, THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N 
NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD...

LIFR: none.

IFR: KEHC, KEIR, KSPR.

MVFR: KBBF, KBQX, KHQI, KVQT, KGBK, KGRY, KMDJ, KVOA, and KMIS.

CURRENT CONDITIONS AND WEATHER, FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE 
U.S.A., FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA...

Texas: LIFR in Huntsville. MVFR in Conroe. MVFR in Jasper. 
LOUISIANA: rain, heavy at times and accompanied by thunder also,
in the coastal plains. MISSISSIPPI: light rain, off and on, in
the coastal plains. ALABAMA: light rain in Evergreen. FLORIDA:
LIFR in the NW parts of the Panama City metropolitan area. IFR in
Perry. MVFR in Cross City and Brooksville, and in parts of the Key
West metropolitan area.

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a 22N68W cyclonic circulation
center, about 180 nm to the NE of Hispaniola, to 16N68W in the
Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate
to isolated strong from 13N in the Caribbean Sea, to 22N in the 
Atlantic Ocean, between 56W and 72W. The comparatively strongest
precipitation is in the northern coastal waters and in the
southern coastal waters of the Dominican Republic.

The monsoon trough stretches from Costa Rica to Colombia, along
09N/10N. Convective precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
from 10N to 12N between 76W and 83W. 

24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that 
ended at 30/0000 UTC...according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE 
AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...are 0.92 in 
Guadeloupe. 

...HISPANIOLA...

Upper level cyclonic wind flow is moving across the area, with the
current upper level trough.

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: MVFR for
visibility. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: rainshowers and thunder
have ended for the moment at most, if not all, the observing
stations. few cumulonimbus clouds remain.

The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 mb shows that cyclonic wind flow 
will span Hispaniola during the first 24 hours of the 48-hour
forecast period. Expect NW wind flow during the rest of the time.
The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 mb shows that a ridge will cut
across Hispaniola during most of the first 24 hours or so of the 
overall 48-hour forecast period. Expect NE wind flow during the
rest of the time. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an
inverted trough will affect the area during the first 6 hours or
so. Expect easterly wind flow during the rest of the 48-hour
forecast period. 

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is along 28N20W, to 22N34W, and to 10N43W. 
No significant deep convective precipitation is apparent.

An upper level trough passes 32N43W to 25N47W, 25N60W, toward the
22N68W cyclonic circulation center. No significant deep 
convective precipitation is apparent.

A surface ridge extends from a 1026 mb high pressure center that 
is near 34N30W, through a 1023 mb high pressure center that is 
near 30N45W, to 27N77W, and beyond Lake Okeechobee in south 
Florida.

For additional information please visit 
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
MT

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Page last modified: Tuesday, 30-May-2017 12:15:59 UTC