232 
AXNT20 KNHC 112226
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Jun 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2200 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 26W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are seen near the 
southern portion of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08.5N to 12.5N between 48W and 56W.

A tropical wave is moving from the eastern to the central
Caribbean, along 69W, south of 19N near the eastern tip of the
Dominican Republic, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The southern 
portion is enhancing convection over western Venezuela and the
A-B-C Islands.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 18.5N16W and continues southwestward to 07N31W. 
The ITCZ extends from 07N31W to just off the coast of French
Guiana near 06N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is 
evident from 05N to 09N between 13W and 47W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Widely scattered showers are in the NW Gulf. Elsewhere, generally
dry conditions prevail. The pressure gradient between the ridge 
over the central Atlantic and lower pressures over Mexico support 
moderate to fresh SE winds west of 92W. Seas in these waters are 
3-5 ft. Gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas are 
prevalent in the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, Atlantic ridging will extend westward across 
the Gulf through the next several days. Moderate to fresh 
northeast to east winds are expected each afternoon and evening 
north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of 
Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Winds are 
expected to briefly reach strong speeds at times. Moderate to 
fresh southeast winds are forecast elsewhere in the western and 
south-central Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds across the 
remainder of the basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please refer to the Tropical Waves section for details on the wave
moving across the eastern Caribbean.

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends
from northern Colombia to Costa Rica and it is the source for 
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SW 
Caribbean Sea, with a 1009 mb embedded low pressure analyzed near
10N80W. Low-level convergence as well as a passing tropical wave
is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms 
elsewhere in the southern Caribbean, mainly S of 14N, while 
generally drier conditions are noted elsewhere due to a plume of 
Saharan dust. 

A strong subtropical ridge centered north of the islands forces
fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across much of the
Caribbean, especially south of 19N, except in the SW Caribbean and
offshore much of Cuba where winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are
6-8 ft across the eastern and central Caribbean, with locally
higher seas through Atlantic passages due to easterly swell in the
Tropical N Atlantic waters. Seas are 4-7 ft over the remainder of
the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N 
of the basin and relatively lower pressures in the Caribbean and 
in northern South America will maintain fresh to strong trades and
moderate seas over most of the central Caribbean and west-central
Caribbean through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas 
produced by these winds will shift westward toward Honduras and 
northeast Nicaragua also through the period. Winds will pulse to 
fresh to strong speeds near the Gulf of Honduras during the 
evening and overnight hours, with greater coverage of these winds 
expected Mon and Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail 
elsewhere, except in the lee of Cuba where gentle to moderate 
winds are expected through early next week. Mostly fresh trades 
will remain over the Tropical N Atlantic zones through early next 
week. Moderate to rough seas with these winds will subside late 
Thu. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin as described above.

A 1027 mb subtropical ridge centered a few hundred nautical miles
east of Bermuda near 32N58.5W dominates the entire tropical 
Atlantic. Fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds are noted 
south of 20N over the open waters, and south of 22N west of 55W
over those offshore waters. Fresh to locally strong winds are also
offshore Africa north of 17N and between the Cabo Verde Islands.
Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere. For seas, 7-10 ft
prevail south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas are mainly 6-8 ft south
of 20N and east of 40W. Slight seas, 2-4 ft, are found north of
30N, and from 24N to 30N between 25W and 55W, with 4-7 ft seas
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge along 31N will change 
little through the next few days. It will be the main feature 
controlling the wind regime throughout the region. Pulsing fresh 
to strong winds are expected north of Hispaniola to near 22N 
during each late afternoon and at night through the period. 

$$
Lewitsky