000
AXNT20 KNHC 150906
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jun 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, 
moving westward around 10 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44.5W, south of 15N, 
moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is 
associated with this wave.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 75W, south the SW tip
of Haiti near 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers
are seen near the wave axis.

The active tropical wave continues to move across Central America
and into the eastern Pacific. See the Eastern Pacific's Tropical 
Weather Discussion for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... 

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 05N26W. The
ITCZ extends from 05N26W to 06N33W, then resumes west of the
tropical wave near 06N35W to 07N39W. No significant convection is
observed in association with these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Other than some widely scattered showers in the eastern Gulf and
near the coast of Veracruz, weather conditions are fairly quiet
with the subtropical ridge dominating the basin. Moderate to 
locally fresh SE winds and seas of 3-5 ft are found in the 
western half of the Gulf and off northern Yucatan. Moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of 
the Gulf.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will 
pulse each afternoon and evening through the week north of the 
Yucatan Peninsula and in the eastern Bay of Campeche as a diurnal 
trough develops and treks westward across the region. Otherwise, 
ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate S to SE 
winds and moderate seas over the central and western Gulf of 
America through the middle of the week, with gentle to locally 
moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas in the eastern 
basin. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The eastern portion of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough is
producing a few showers across the SW Caribbean and generally
drier conditions prevail elsewhere. The pressure gradient between
the subtropical ridge located north of the islands and lower
pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong easterly
trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 
6-9 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras,
with moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas
elsewhere in the eastern and western Caribbean, especially south 
of 20N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by moderate or 
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds are expected to 
pulse across the central and west-central Caribbean through the 
middle of the week as a strong pressure gradient prevails between 
high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central 
Caribbean. Rough seas in E swell are likely in this region. Fresh 
to strong E to SE winds will also occur each night and morning in 
the Gulf of Honduras, and these winds will expand through much of 
the northwestern Caribbean early in the week after the passage of 
a tropical wave. Elsewhere, locally rough seas in E swell will 
occur east of the Lesser Antilles and through the passages into 
the eastern Caribbean into today. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds
and seas are expected across the rest of the basin. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic dominates
the tropical Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient between the 
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds south of 22N and west of 40W, 
including through the Windward Passage. Seas in these waters are 
5-8 ft. In the eastern Atlantic, moderate to locally strong N-NE 
winds and seas of 6-9 ft are noted north of 16N and east of 21W. 
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh trade 
winds will pulse south of 25N through the middle of the week as 
high pressure prevails over the central Atlantic. At the same 
time, locally strong winds will be possible just north of 
Hispaniola. Elsewhere, moderate S to SW winds will pulse offshore 
of Florida into the middle of the week as low pressure prevails 
over the eastern United States. Otherwise, mainly gentle to 
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere 
north of 25N through the week. 

$$
Lewitsky