000
AXNT20 KNHC 091703
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu May 9 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1650 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of SW Senegal
and Guinea-Bissau, to 10N17W and 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from
06N19W, to 05N26W 01N36W, to the Equator along 42W, and to the
Equator along 49W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 07N southward between 32W and 55W.
Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 03N to 07N
between 13W and 16W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is elsewhere from 13W eastward.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface ridge passes through 26N66W in the Atlantic Ocean,
through the NW Bahamas, into the east central Gulf of Mexico,
toward the upper Texas Gulf coast. Fresh to strong SE winds have
been from just offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula to 25N
between 87W and 90W. Fresh SE winds are elsewhere in the middle
one-third of the area. Fresh SE winds are in the remainder of the 
Gulf of Mexico. Moderate seas are in the open waters of the
western half of the Gulf. Slight seas are in the coastal waters of
the western half of the area. Slight to moderate seas are from 90W
eastward.

A NW-to-SE oriented inland Mexico surface trough passes through 
25N100W, to the SW Gulf coastal waters near 19N96W, and it 
continues to 16N86W in the coastal plains of Honduras. No 
significant deep convective precipitation is apparent in the 
satellite imagery.

Haze in the observations is making the visibilities to be lower,
from the Yucatan Peninsula westward. Agricultural fires continue 
in SE Mexico. MVFR conditions are in the coastal plains from Texas
to Florida.

Mainly fresh SE winds will prevail across much of the Gulf 
through tonight, ahead of a cold front slowly approaching from the
NW. The cold front will move off the Texas coast into the 
northwest Gulf Fri and move SE, stalling from south Texas to the 
Straits of Florida on Sun, then weaken and drift northward. 
Moderate to locally fresh NE winds will follow the front into Sat 
evening. Haze due to agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico 
persists across most of the western Gulf. Patchy fog is possible 
along the northern Gulf coast today. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between 45W
and 80W. This area includes the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean 
Sea. A surface trough is along 16N70W, through the easternmost
sections of the Dominican Republic, 20N64W, curving to 25N60W. 
Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the 
south of the line: from 20N at the NE coast of the Yucatan 
Peninsula, to 20N and SE Cuba, to 17N70W, to 16N60W. The upper
level trough will continue to move more toward the northeast of 
the area through tonight. Atmospheric conditions will begin to 
stabilize in its wake. Abundant deep layer tropical moisture is
just to the east of the NE Caribbean Sea. has been remaining in 
the eastern Caribbean Sea. Persistent daily rainfall in the 
Greater Antilles and in the NE Caribbean Sea islands during the 
past several days has left the ground at or near saturation. River
levels are high in this region also. Please, read advisories, 
bulletins, forecasts, watches and warnings, for specific
information about hazardous local conditions, from your local 
weather bureau offices.

Slight to moderate seas are in the eastern one-third of the area.
Slight seas are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate
seas are from 80W westward. Fresh SE winds are from 50 nm to 190
nm of the coast of Venezuela between 62W and 69W. Some fresh NE
winds are from 11N to 14N between 74W and 77W. Moderate E to SE
winds are elsewhere from 70W eastward. Moderate NE to E are
elsewhere between 70W and 80W. Fresh to strong E to SE winds have
been from Honduras northward. Moderate winds are in the remainder
of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 09/1200 UTC, are: 0.55 in Guadeloupe; and 0.02 in San Juan in 
Puerto Rico. This information is from the Pan American Temperature
and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The Atlantic ridge extends from the central Atlantic westward to 
central Florida, and will shift slowly eastward through the 
weekend. This pattern will support moderate to fresh trade winds 
over the south-central and SE Caribbean through the weekend, with 
some increasing winds possible early next week. Meanwhile, expect 
pulses of fresh to locally strong E winds at night across the Gulf
of Honduras into the start of next week due to the pressure 
gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure over Central
America. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist 
elsewhere. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper level trough is generating cyclonic wind flow between 45W
and 80W. This area includes the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean 
Sea. A surface trough is along 16N70W, through the easternmost
sections of the Dominican Republic, 20N64W, curving to 25N60W. 
Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated
moderate to locally strong, are between 30W and 60W. The 24-hour
rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 09/1200 
UTC, are: 0.06 in Bermuda. This information is from the Pan 
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.
Abundant deep layer tropical moisture is just to the east of the 
NE Caribbean Sea. 

A 1020 mb high pressure center is near 31N38W. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the Atlantic Ocean. An exception is
close to the 16N70W 25N60W surface trough.

Fresh NE winds are from 17N southward between 33W and 46W, and
from 12N southward between 46W and 60W. Moderate to fresh NE winds
are elsewhere to the southeast of the line 24N56W 28N37W 31N29W.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds are from 28N northward from 70W
westerly. Moderate or slower anticyclonic winds are in the remainder
of the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 16N
northward between 25W and 50W, and from 17N to 24N between 50W and
55W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

1023 mb high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic 
near 31N38W and extends a ridge westward to central Florida. The 
ridge will shift slowly eastward through the weekend, as a cold 
front approaches from the NW. Fresh to strong southerly winds will
develop off of northeast and central Florida this evening, then 
become SW and shift to offshore of northeast Florida Fri through 
Fri evening. The front will move offshore of northeast Florida 
early Fri night and across Florida on Sat, bringing moderate to 
fresh NW winds behind it. The front will weaken significantly by 
Sun afternoon as it moves east of 65W.

$$
mt/ss