Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131713
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE MAY 13 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN 
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE 
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING
INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1645 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 56W/57W S OF 10N MOVING W 10-15 KT. 
SCATTERED TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS BEHIND THE AXIS FROM 5N-8N 
BETWEEN 52W-55W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN THE WAVE AND 59W. THE 
WAVE IS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE EASTERN 
CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N9W 3N20W 2N30W 1N40W AND INTO NE 
BRAZIL NEAR 2N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO THE SW COAST OF AFRICA EAST 
OF 9W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 17W-22W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-4N BETWEEN 30W-33W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE 
TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 32W-37W. WIDESPREAD 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS BETWEEN THE NE COAST OF BRAZIL AND THE 
AXIS WEST OF 36W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BAND OF LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED 
SHOWERS...REMNANTS OF A DISSIPATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY... 
EXTEND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SE GULF FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA 
TO THE FLORIDA STRAIGHTS. A COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS NOW 
RESIDES OVER THE NE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS COVERED BY 15-20 KT SOUTHERLY RETURN 
FLOW AROUND A WEAK SFC RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1022 MB HIGH OVER THE 
EASTERN CONUS. ALOFT...SWLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS TRANSPORTING 
UPPER MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS MEXICO AND THE NW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED IN THE ATLC EXTENDS SW OVER 
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER AND PATCHY CLOUDS 
ACROSS THE REGION. LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO 
DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN. WIND SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE SW 
CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED 
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 13N84W TO THE 
PANAMA CANAL...THEN ALONG THE NE COAST OF PANAMA TO COLOMBIA. 
THIS CONVECTION IS BEING ENHANCED BY A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT 
BETWEEN THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH AND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY 
OF THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ELSEWHERE IN THE 
CARIBBEAN...SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS INHIBITED UNDER STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. EXPECT MOISTURE IN THE SE GULF TO INCREASE 
OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE ATLC 
ENTERS THE REGION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STRONG DEEP-LAYERED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OFFSHORE OF 
THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES NEAR 36N67W EXTENDS A COLD FRONT INTO 
THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N62W ALONG 25N70W TO THE 
STRAIGHTS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N82W. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM OF THE BOUNDARY S OF 27N AND 
WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY N OF 27N. WINDS BEHIND THE 
BOUNDARY E OF 74 W ARE NW 20 TO 25 KT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH 
PATCHY CLOUDS FILL IN THE W ATLC BEHIND THE FRONT AROUND A 
BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A BROAD SFC 
RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EAST ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB SFC 
HIGH PRESSURE NEAR 29N35W. THIS HIGH PRES SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
TRANSPORT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THE RIDGE. ALOFT... 
AN ELONGATED UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 
18N...ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ.


$$
WADDINGTON