000 AXNT20 KNHC 251136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED NOV 25 2009 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ... 7N11W 6N35W 8N44W...INTO NORTHERN GUYANA NEAR 7N60W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 19W AND 25W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 60W. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING PUSHED NORTHEASTWARD BY THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW IN THE AREA FROM 10N TO 25N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 14N41W 9N44W 4N46W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO LOUISIANA TO THE WESTERN GULF NEAR 26N96W...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR 21N96W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 22N...CURVING TO 26N103W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 92W AND THE MEXICO GULF COAST. A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA COAST. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER NORTHEASTWARD TO FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W AND INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N78W. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO THE NORTHERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 22N TO 27N BETWEEN 80W AND 86W. DENSE OVERCAST CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO THE WEST OF 78W...IN THE AREA OF A LOW LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH THAT STRETCHES FROM NORTHERN COASTAL COLOMBIA TOWARD THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF NICARAGUA. SHOWERS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...ARE IN AN AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS OVER SOUTH AMERICA IS SENDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO JAMAICA...AND THEN THE FLOW CURVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALREADY IS AFFECTING AND HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND THE EASTERN U.S.A. COAST. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N60W TO 24N52W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N TO 29N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N44W TO 28N44W TO 15N42W TOWARD THE ITCZ NEAR 10N41W. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N38W 28N41W 27N45W 25N47W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 16N TO 18N BETWEEN 43W AND 44W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N39W TO 28N50W...TO A SECOND 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N53W...BEYOND 32N58W. $$ MT
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