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Tropical Storm ULIKA Forecast Discussion


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 290851
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM ULIKA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192016
200 AM PDT THU SEP 29 2016

Despite about 25 kt of west-southwesterly shear, a burst of deep
convection which developed around 0100 UTC has persisted, and
Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB increased to T3.5/55 kt
and T2.0/30 kt, respectively.  Based on these numbers, the initial
intensity is held at 45 kt.  Vertical shear is expected to turn
westerly and increase to between 30 and 50 kt during the next couple
of days.  Given Ulika's small size, it will be no match for this
type of shear and should therefore weaken very quickly.  The NHC
intensity forecast decays the system very similarly to what is
shown by the LGEM model.  Based on the latest global model fields,
Ulika is likely to dissipate by day 3, if not sooner.

Ulika has turned north-northwestward, or 340/5 kt, around the
eastern side of a mid-level low located near 19N144W.  The cyclone
is expected to continue turning counterclockwise around this
feature today and tonight, and it should then be moving westward by
Friday when it is steered by lower-level trade wind flow.  The
updated NHC track forecast is a little west and south of the
previous forecast, but that is primarily due to an adjustment of
the initial position.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 16.0N 139.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 16.7N 139.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 17.4N 140.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 17.6N 142.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  01/0600Z 17.5N 144.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  02/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg