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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion (Text)


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000
WTPZ44 KNHC 050244
TCDEP4

TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP142015
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015

Satellite images indicate that the area of convection on the north
side of Kevin continues to move farther away from the apparent
center.  The low-level circulation also appeared to be elongating
from north to south on the last light visible imagery, with a
recent microwave pass confirming that degraded structure.  A blend
of Dvorak estimates supports lowering the intensity to 40 kt.
Remnant low status is expected by 36 hours, with the circulation
probably degenerating into a trough by day 3.

The center is getting harder to track, but I don't see convincing
evidence that the initial motion has changed from the previous
advisory, so it will remain 360/07.  A leftward turn should occur
overnight due to the cyclone decoupling from its mid-level center
and being steered more by the low-level flow.  The shallower cyclone
should then gain a greater westerly component of motion this weekend
as it moves around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern
Pacific.  The new track forecast is basically just an update of the
previous one, and is south of the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 22.7N 115.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 23.4N 115.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 23.9N 116.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 24.1N 117.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/0000Z 24.2N 118.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


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Page last modified: Saturday, 05-Sep-2015 02:45:01 UTC