Skip Navigation Links   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion

Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

WTPZ44 KNHC 040232

800 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015

Intense thunderstorms have been persisting near the center of Kevin
during the past several hours, with outflow continuing especially
in the cyclone's northern semicircle.  Microwave data also show that
the inner core of the storm is better defined than earlier today.
The initial intensity is thus increased to 50 kt, a blend of the 45
kt classification from TAFB and the 55 kt one from SAB. The cyclone
should reach its peak intensity in the next 12 hours or so while the
shear remains low-to-moderate and waters are warm. Thereafter, the
shear is forecast to strengthen and Kevin will encounter more
marginal SSTs and dry mid-level air, which should cause weakening.
The official forecast is a blend of the previous forecast and the
intensity consensus.  Degeneration into a remnant low in expected
about 3 days due to a continuation of the higher shear, low moisture
and cool water environment.

Kevin is moving a little faster tonight, estimated at 360/8.  Over
the next day or so, while the system remains vertically intact, it
should move generally northward around the southwest side of a mid-
level ridge.  Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow
cyclone is likely to turn toward the northwest and west and be
steered mainly by the low-level flow.  Model guidance, however, is
not in good agreement on when this leftward turn will occur, with
almost all of the guidance delaying the turn a bit longer on this
cycle, resulting in Kevin gaining more latitude.  Because Kevin has
now become a deeper cyclone, it makes sense to move the new NHC
prediction north of the previous one given that Kevin should now
take a little longer to become a more shallow cyclone.  However, the
new forecast still lies south of most of the guidance and the model


INIT  04/0300Z 19.7N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z 22.0N 115.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 22.7N 116.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 23.3N 117.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 23.5N 119.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Forecaster Blake

Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Friday, 04-Sep-2015 02:33:00 UTC